Will Meta's Llama family of models reach 2 billion downloads by September 30, 2025?

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resolved Nov 2

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Resolution Criteria: Official announcement from Meta or reliable industry reports confirming that Llama models have collectively reached 2 billion downloads.

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Meta’s Llama models are popular in the AI community, but 2 billion downloads by September 2025 is a very steep target. This would require massive adoption beyond the typical research and developer user base, probably including large-scale integration into consumer apps or platforms. Meta would have to officially confirm or reliable industry sources verify it, which so far hasn’t happened. Given the current market probability at 14.2%, I agree it’s unlikely within this timeframe, especially since adoption growth appears steady but not viral at that scale yet. So, I place a low-to-medium confidence bet against it happening.

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