When will Meta release Llama 5?
5
167Ṁ1252027
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
40%
Before January 2026
63%
Before July 2026
72%
Before January 2027
79%
Before July 2027
84%
Before January 2028
Background
Meta’s Llama timeline so far:
Llama 1: February 2023
Llama 2: July 2023
Llama 3: April 2024 (with 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 releases through late 2024)
Llama 4: April 5, 2025
Given this roughly annual cadence, we’re testing whether Llama 5 will ship sooner or later.
Thresholds (each resolves YES/NO individually)
Each threshold resolves YES if Meta publicly releases Llama 5 before that date; otherwise it resolves NO as soon as the date passes without a release:
January 1, 2026
July 1, 2026
January 1, 2027
July 1, 2027
January 1, 2028
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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