Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
1k
2030
75%
chance

Resolves YES if Meta deploys an LLM, whatever name it might have, that is at least as strong as its best other LLM, either as a ChatBot, API access or as clearly used in another consumer product offering, and within 30 days of that deployment it is not possible to download the model weights.

Resolves to NO if Meta releases the model weights to a model it self-describes as AGI, or that clearly constitutes AGI as per OpenAI's definition as of 1 Jan 2024.

Also resolves to NO if Meta fails to release what they claim to be substantially improved LLM for 36 consecutive months, or for 24 months after the market closes.

Resolves to N/A on 1/1/35 if somehow none of the above criteria are met (to be safe).

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Resolves YES if Meta deploys an LLM, whatever name it might have, that is at least as strong as its best other LLM, either as a ChatBot, API access or as clearly used in another consumer product offering, and within 30 days of that deployment it is not possible to download the model weights.

I assume this does not include a malicious actor leaking the LLM's weights against Meta's intentions, right?

@bohaska If it is available within 30 days for download (e.g. I can get it) then it counts as having been released. That's part of not releasing.