@mods Just wondering how to continue on the resolution of this market, the report is out for the month however the uncertainty is between 163-252 and for the market to resolve yes there needs confirmation of more than 213 tornadoes, however it may take until the start of 2026 for the final report to come out. If I resolve the market now instead of waiting, it would be 'NO' because the average of the range is 207.5 which is below 213, however this option would be risky because the total may still be above 213. So should I wait, or resolve now. Just wanting advise...

@RZacDQ I vote wait. Correct resolution is worth more than fast resolution; we have loans, nowadays, so the locked-up mana isn't a particularly serious problem.

@RZacDQ standard procedure would be to wait.

@RZacDQ Resolves NO right?

@arbogast the NCEI have finally released the report for the month and it is unclear whether the total was greater than 213

@RZacDQ see the report here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/202506

@RZacDQ Ah I see, I assumed the the ‘at least x confirmed tornadoes’ was the final number

This line was just added to the Wikipedia page today:

"Despite being relatively active across the northern tier of the country, June finished with a below average 178 confirmed tornadoes as tropical cyclone activity did not impact the United States."

Does this mean the market would resolve to a NO?

@Al_f0nce not yet I don't think. best if we wait for ncei confirmation

@traders This market will resolve as soon as it can thank you all.
In the mean time the next market for July is out https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/number-of-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-ju-UpCzQ6nhpd

It looks like the final total will be very close to average one way or another, but just to be clear the preliminary count of 225 is not the final confirmed count.

@DevdaDavid 249 on the big board now. This is over.

@ScottSupak there is a difference between preliminary and confirmed, for example in 2011 there were 2240 preliminary reports https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/newimgs/2011-torn-counts.png and 1714 confirmed tornadoes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2011. This market will resolve on confirmed reports. This market is not over as there is currently only 159 confirmed reports. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_in_June_2025

@RZacDQ my bad, was working on the assumption the confirmation rate was higher than 0.7651

225 on the big board now...

did you know you can sing “Number of tornadoes in the whole United States” to the first stanza of Bob-Omb Battlefield

the rhythm matches up perfectly

@KJW_01294 wow that was really fun to let fly

it worked like a charm my first try

I let it ring out

gave out a shout

then wrote about how it all went

so I'm really quite pleased that you sent

this wonderful earworm content

Now I won't forget this one market ever again

217 on the big board now:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/summary/

New Rufsum Page - NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

Counting often continues for days after the end of the month. What day will you check the report?

@ScottSupak if the total can be confirmed to be greater than 213 before or at the end of the month it will be resolved. conformation for this will come from: https://apps.dat.noaa.gov/stormdamage/damageviewer/ or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_in_June_2025. If there is less than 213 tornadoes confirmed by then we will rely on more reports to come in or if the total is very close we will use data from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/. The market will only resolves as 'no' if we can be sure that there has definitely been less than 214 tornadoes or until the monthly report by NOAA has been released.

@traders Related Market: https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/how-many-ef4-tornadoes-will-have-hi