Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total number of confirmed tornadoes in the United States during July 2025 exceeds the average number of tornadoes for the month of July, based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The average number of July tornadoes is approximately 118. (ncei.noaa.gov) Confirmation will be based on official confirmed reports, not preliminary reports.

Background

July is typically the fourth most active month for tornadoes in the U.S., following April, May, and June. (ustornadoes.com) Tornado activity in July often shifts northward, affecting the northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast regions. (weather.com)

Considerations

Tornado counts can vary significantly year to year due to factors like atmospheric conditions and tropical activity. For instance, July 2024 saw 180 tornadoes, the highest since 1997, largely due to events like Hurricane Beryl and a derecho in the Chicago area. (bigrapidsnews.com) Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts and weather patterns that could influence tornado activity in July 2025.