*249 Preliminary reports as of June 30th
*159 Confirmed tornadoes as of June 30th
This market predicts whether the total number of tornadoes in the United States during June 2025 will exceed 213, the average for June based on historical data. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports that the average number of tornadoes in June is 213. Source
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to 'YES' if the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports more than 213 tornadoes for June 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'NO'. The official count can be found in the NCEI's monthly tornado report for June 2025, typically published in July 2025. NCEI Monthly Tornado Reports
Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve to YES early if the tornado count is confirmed to be greater than 213 before or at the end of June 2025.
Sources for this early confirmation can include the NOAA Storm Damage Viewer or Wikipedia.
If the count has not exceeded 213 by the end of the month, resolution will wait for the official NCEI monthly report. The market will only resolve to NO once it is certain the total is less than 214, or when the final NCEI report is released.
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that the official NCEI report has been released, but it is unclear from the report whether the total number of tornadoes was greater than 213. This may affect the final resolution of the market.
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The official NCEI report has been released but provides an uncertain range for the final tornado count: 163-252. The resolution threshold of 213 falls within this range. The creator is considering two potential paths for resolution:
Waiting for a definitive final report, which may not be available until the start of 2026.
Resolving to NO now, based on the average of the uncertain range (207.5), which is below the threshold.
The creator has not yet decided how to proceed.
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