This market predicts whether the total number of tornadoes in the United States during June 2025 will exceed 213, the average for June based on historical data. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports that the average number of tornadoes in June is 213. Source
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to 'YES' if the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports more than 213 tornadoes for June 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'NO'. The official count can be found in the NCEI's monthly tornado report for June 2025, typically published in July 2025. NCEI Monthly Tornado Reports
Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve to YES early if the tornado count is confirmed to be greater than 213 before or at the end of June 2025.
Sources for this early confirmation can include the NOAA Storm Damage Viewer or Wikipedia.
If the count has not exceeded 213 by the end of the month, resolution will wait for the official NCEI monthly report. The market will only resolve to NO once it is certain the total is less than 214, or when the final NCEI report is released.
1,000@ScottSupak if the total can be confirmed to be greater than 213 before or at the end of the month it will be resolved. conformation for this will come from: https://apps.dat.noaa.gov/stormdamage/damageviewer/ or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_in_June_2025. If there is less than 213 tornadoes confirmed by then we will rely on more reports to come in or if the total is very close we will use data from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/. The market will only resolves as 'no' if we can be sure that there has definitely been less than 214 tornadoes or until the monthly report by NOAA has been released.