*There have so far been 5 EF4+ tornadoes as of market creation

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the total number of tornadoes rated EF4 or higher (EF4 and EF5) that occur in the United States from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025. The official count will be determined using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The final numbers are typically published in the SPC's annual report, which can be accessed at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The market will resolve to the exact number reported by the SPC for the specified period.

Background

Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, which classifies tornadoes from EF0 (weakest) to EF5 (strongest) based on the damage they cause. EF4 tornadoes are characterized by wind speeds of 166–200 mph and cause devastating damage, while EF5 tornadoes have wind speeds exceeding 200 mph and result in incredible damage. (en.wikipedia.org)

Historically, the United States experiences an average of approximately nine tornadoes rated EF4 or higher each year. However, this number can vary significantly. For instance, in 2018, there were no EF4 or EF5 tornadoes, marking the only year without a single violent tornado since records began in 1950. (weather.com)

In 2024, the U.S. experienced a near-historic level of tornado activity, with 1,796 confirmed tornadoes, making it the second-highest number on record. This included several EF4 tornadoes, contributing to the year's significant impact. (weather.gov)

Considerations

The occurrence of EF4 and EF5 tornadoes is relatively rare and can be influenced by various climatic and atmospheric conditions. While the average is around nine per year, the actual number can fluctuate, as seen in years like 2018 with none and 2024 with several. Traders should consider factors such as seasonal weather patterns, climate anomalies, and historical trends when making predictions.