I will check https://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm at some point during Oct 11, 2024 EST to see if any volcanoes are reported to have started erupting during this time frame. Resolves to date posted on the page.

Hotfix: This market can resolve early if the eruption condition is met. Dates are inclusive. Oct 3 and Oct 10 count. Resolves to condition of the page on Oct 11 when I first check.

I can bet on this market, but I can not bet after the YES condition is met.

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is a cooperative project between the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program and the US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program.

Context:

To summarize my chat log with it, I asked ChatGPT something to the effect of, 'Describe an event that would normally be considered a 6-sigma event that has a 75% or greater chance to happen over the course of the next week.'

I got:

"An event with around a 75% likelihood of happening globally in the next week, which would normally be considered a six sigma event, could be a volcanic eruption somewhere in the world.

While individual volcanic eruptions are rare and unpredictable, there are dozens of active volcanoes globally. On average, several eruptions happen each week. A volcanic eruption might seem like a rare, significant event, but given the number of active volcanoes and monitoring, it’s highly likely that at least one will erupt over the course of a week.

This event is independently verifiable by checking global volcano activity monitoring services, such as the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program or the Volcano Discovery website, both of which provide up-to-date information."

And with that seed of doubt planted, happy betting!