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MANIFOLD
Who will "win" the Whaleslayer Coinflip prize? [Add yourself!]
13
Ṁ225Ṁ2k
resolved Jun 25
100%67%Other
15%

Resolves to the user the 1,000 2,000 mana payment is awarded to in the market below.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
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Ṁ1,000
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I'm fairly new to this place, and still learning. Is the 'Profit Table' the individual gain/loss state, or is it a bet-specific profit table? Is there a link to the profit table?

@ODU9Psu The Holders tab on any market lets you sort by profit.

However, in this case we are interested in profit after the market resolves to either YES or NO, so sorting by position an estimating potential profit from that is probably more useful.

@ODU9Psu On the main market, look at the "Holders" tab. You can swap between "position" and "profit" on that table with the button in the upper right of that tab.

When the market resolves, it will be much more drastic than you see now. It's only representing expected value profit for now, but when the market resolves, most people will have either doubled their money or lost it all, so the profit table will show where all the chips have landed after that.

@ODU9Psu It currently looks like this, but expect a bloodbath with much bigger numbers once it resolves either YES or NO.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Quroe Gotcha, I was thinking was individual gain/loss state at first. Thank you all for the responses!

bought Ṁ10 YES

@ODU9Psu I absolutely messed this up hilariously at first -- not even noticing the other bet and thinking this was about either your own gain/loss state or how your current bets in this market changed value of the time before resolution. Appreciate the quick responses that let me reset!

@ODU9Psu Largely speaking, this market is about who will risk the most mana and be on the losing side of the fence after that.

The silliness is that whales with a lot of mana have positive expected value (EV) due to the side pot. The math works out that you have an edge if you risk the most mana.

@Quroe I worked that out once I had full information -- I preferred my initial two frameworks honestly, that it was either individual gain/loss records (in which case people could sabotage their local record to win) or that it was the profit in the micro-market of the one (before I knew about the coin-flip, in which case you could also sabotage yourself by placing bad bets amongst the people in that market). Once I saw the coin-flip and worked out the dominant outcomes (either one of the two people betting 10k will end up losing the most) it was not as interesting.

@ODU9Psu I'm all for making interesting markets. You mean you originally thought it was about the traders' general, overall profit and loss charts?

@Quroe Right, I am still very new and I probably read too fast -- I somehow interpreted it as the person who won the 2k was going to be the person who had the greatest loss in their personal record at the resolution of the time. So, since I was already at -150 and after clicking through the listed names I saw that I was almost the worst record, I placed a long-shot soccer bet that would resolve with me either the worst record or with a massive gain for winning the long shot.
Then I started to realize my error, at which point I thought it might mean the outcome of the gambles within the market... like if you place a 10 bet that changes value over the time of the market...
So, finally I asked for more information since I realized I was missing something that clearly others knew, and kind people answered quickly.
I am much more concerned with having fun than perfection, so I enjoyed the morning -- there is a reason I am on this place with points instead of the $ markets.

@ODU9Psu I'll tweak the wording on the main market to make this more clear. Thanks for the feedback!

plsssssssssssssssssssssss

bought Ṁ10 YES

please no one jump in last second