The YouTube channel Veritasium made a community post asking people to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar. Traders are encouraged to submit their own guesses via the link.
See the jar here: https://www.veritasiumjellybeans.com
Backup link if the site is down:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Bf-0VZmaLw3mPZeEXG6x7VJ7EAeSJHkl/view?usp=drivesdk
Companion market:
Outcome will be verified via media produced by Veritasium. If this information is not made public before January 1, 2030, then all market answers resolve N/A.
The Market Creator has no relation to Veritasium nor has knowledge of the correct answer at time of market creation. Market Creator may only trade on this market after 1 week of operation or after 10 unique traders have traded, whichever happens first. Market Creator cannot trade between knowing the correct answer and resolving the market. Market Creator or Mods may halt trading if Veritasium announces an imminent release of the correct answer.
1,000People are also trading
We got a shoutout on the Manifold Markets Substack email! I am honored, but Veritasium gets credit for making the almighty standard this market operates on. If the Veritasium team is watching, you've given a community something silly to focus on in these trying times, and we appreciate it.
Bet on whether Manifold's estimate of 1750 (currently and roughly over the last 24 hours of this market) will be closer than Veritasium's crowd-sourced estimate here:
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-be-more-accurate-than-ESUsQREOtp?play=true
If this is it, feel free to reply the time stamp of where the beans answer is to expedite resolution.
Bet on whether Manifold's estimate of 1750 (currently and roughly over the last 24 hours of this market) will be closer than Veritasium's crowd-sourced estimate here:
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-be-more-accurate-than-ESUsQREOtp?play=true
@bens We also need a market for what Veritasium will reveal the [mean, median, whatever] will be from the survey!
We got a shoutout on the Manifold Markets Substack email! I am honored, but Veritasium gets credit for making the almighty standard this market operates on. If the Veritasium team is watching, you've given a community something silly to focus on in these trying times, and we appreciate it.
@bens You can modify/edit your comment so it uses the "Add Question" tool instead of a link. It would be super cool to see the odds presented here live with that edit -- it would invite people over to your market for potential arbitrage opportunities.
@Quroe That which is a jelly bean must have in its existence a half of a jelly bean. This having been proved it is evident that the same must hold for the half of a jelly bean - namely, it too must have a half and so on until infinity. It is evident that a finite space cannot - by it's nature - hold an infinite object. Therefore, since this is impossible, the infinite cannot exist in the finite plane, and we must conclude that the jelly bean cannot exist.
@FergusArgyll Zeno's Paradox can be overcome by demonstrating that, while infinities do exist, we can count infinitely many segmented portions of jelly beans and still have finitely many jelly beans.
That, or we invoke our inner lawyer and define a jelly bean to be whatever descrete unit the Veritasium team counts in the jar when they do their tally.