The big red button gets pushed on lesswrong's petrov day in 2022?
The big red button gets pushed on lesswrong's petrov day in 2022?
18
100Ṁ4262resolved Feb 15
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
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Sorry that I suck everyone. I was gonna read the details and make a nuanced decision, but I keep procrastinating, so I'm just gonna go with the more obvious answer of YES.
predictedYES 2y
Can this resolve yet, or are there still disagreements about how it should be resolved?
sorry, this is a duplicate https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26
@Quinn meant to link to this https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-less-wrongs-big-red-button-be
@Quinn I think the resolution conditions are actually somewhat different here - "button is pushed" is different from "button is used to take down the site". Per https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26?commentId=HwrsGiZXKoLwG8M6z#comments , this market should already resolve YES, while it's unclear if the other one should.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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