The big red button gets pushed on lesswrong's petrov day in 2022?
18
34
Ṁ4.3KṀ100
resolved Feb 15
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ42 | |
2 | Ṁ21 | |
3 | Ṁ19 | |
4 | Ṁ16 | |
5 | Ṁ14 |
Sort by:
sorry, this is a duplicate https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26
@Quinn I think the resolution conditions are actually somewhat different here - "button is pushed" is different from "button is used to take down the site". Per https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26?commentId=HwrsGiZXKoLwG8M6z#comments , this market should already resolve YES, while it's unclear if the other one should.
More related questions
Related questions
Will "The smallest possible button (or: moth traps!)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will Lesswrong get fewer visits in March 2026 than in March 2023?
32% chance
Will "The Plan - 2023 Version" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will I post about working olympiad-prediction-system on LessWrong in 2024?
50% chance
Will "2023 Unofficial LessWrong Census/Survey" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "The case for more ambitious language model evals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2030? *
82% chance
Happy Petrov Day! Commit to doing something depending on whether the button is pressed!
Ṁ0 bounty
Will "Notes from a Prompt Factory" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
24% chance