Will Google's Gemini be the target and victim of a major cyber attack in 2024?
Will Google's Gemini be the target and victim of a major cyber attack in 2024?
resolved by
16
1kṀ14kresolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Includes major DDOS attacks.
Resolves YES if:
Before January 1, 2025: Evidence emerges that any of Google's infrastructure for Gemini/Bard was the intended target and victim of a successful and significant cyber attack. "Successful" and "significant" as determined by relevant authorities and general consensus. DDOS attacks only count if they successfully create a near total outage that lasts for at least 12 hours. Market will resolve when relevant authorities have reached conclusions on any evidence that emerged before 2025.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will not bet in this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.