Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Russian-Ukrainian war casualties do NOT count towards resolution. This market is specifically for new conflicts (such as Iran bombing a European country).

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (14 traders, as of Mar 8, 2026).

Will there be any casualties in Europe from missile strikes in 2026

MANIFOLD

Will there be any casualties in Europe from missile strikes in 2026

Ṁ100Ṁ585

Dec 31

23%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Russian-Ukrainian war casualties do NOT count towards resolution. This market is specifically for new conflicts (such as Iran bombing a European country).

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I was drunk when I made this market. Clarification: Russian - Ukrainian war casualties do not count. This market is for new conflicts (such as Iran bombing a European country).