Will a foreign missile strike a civilian target in California before 2036?
4
แน1kแน2.1k2035
22%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Must cause at least $1m USD in estimated damage to count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Will an Iranian ballistic missile strike the US/UK base at Diego Garcia before June 1st 2026?
10% chance
Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?
29% chance
Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2027?
31% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
12% chance
Will an Ares Industries missile be used by the United States against a foreign enemy ship in combat by the end of 2028?
53% chance
Will WMDs be used for an attack on the U.S. by 2036?
20% chance
Will the US conduct a targeted strike on a foreign leader on January 3, 2027?
4% chance
Will the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
10% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
18% chance