Ends January 1st, 2031.
Attack could be committed by terrorist, state actor, or independent. Accidents do not count.
I used NATO to capture the spirit of "developed Western country," but any incident on the ground of a country that is a member of NATO at the time of the attack counts. Incidents on the grounds of other territories may count if they are intentionally directed at NATO country citizens.
Primarily with a laser weapon means the damage was caused by the laser and it's direct causal effects and not by some other weapon. The fine line here is that a dazzle and shoot scenario does not count, but dazzling a pilot to bring down a plane does count.
Casualties is inclusive of any significant injury or death. Blinding people or significant burn injuries are sufficient.
>19 of course means 20 casualties at a minimum.
I will not participate in this market.
Related questions
Lasers are precision weapons, so any attack on civilians would presumably be intentional. An attack on NATO civilians means it would almost certainly be a terrorist attack. My guess is that lasers will be still be too large and/or expensive to be used in terrorist attacks by 2031.
Dazzling a pilot to bring down a plane does seem to be the most likely scenario where this would resolve to YES.
@DanielParker Yes, I see the most likely scenarios being terrorism to induce blindness in either airplane pilots or many civilians from a fixed position with mains power available, like a Las Vegas shooter scenario. Eye injuries have lower requirements on laser power/collimation.