Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?
11
1kṀ252
2031
26%
chance

Ends January 1st, 2031.

Attack could be committed by terrorist, state actor, or independent. Accidents do not count.

I used NATO to capture the spirit of "developed Western country," but any incident on the ground of a country that is a member of NATO at the time of the attack counts. Incidents on the grounds of other territories may count if they are intentionally directed at NATO country citizens.

Primarily with a laser weapon means the damage was caused by the laser and it's direct causal effects and not by some other weapon. The fine line here is that a dazzle and shoot scenario does not count, but dazzling a pilot to bring down a plane does count.

Casualties is inclusive of any significant injury or death. Blinding people or significant burn injuries are sufficient.

>19 of course means 20 casualties at a minimum.

I will not participate in this market.

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