Ends January 1st, 2031.
Attack could be committed by terrorist, state actor, or independent. Accidents do not count.
I used NATO to capture the spirit of "developed Western country," but any incident on the ground of a country that is a member of NATO at the time of the attack counts. Incidents on the grounds of other territories may count if they are intentionally directed at NATO country citizens.
Primarily with a laser weapon means the damage was caused by the laser and it's direct causal effects and not by some other weapon. The fine line here is that a dazzle and shoot scenario does not count, but dazzling a pilot to bring down a plane does count.
Casualties is inclusive of any significant injury or death. Blinding people or significant burn injuries are sufficient.
>19 of course means 20 casualties at a minimum.
I will not participate in this market.
Lasers are precision weapons, so any attack on civilians would presumably be intentional. An attack on NATO civilians means it would almost certainly be a terrorist attack. My guess is that lasers will be still be too large and/or expensive to be used in terrorist attacks by 2031.
Dazzling a pilot to bring down a plane does seem to be the most likely scenario where this would resolve to YES.
@DanielParker Yes, I see the most likely scenarios being terrorism to induce blindness in either airplane pilots or many civilians from a fixed position with mains power available, like a Las Vegas shooter scenario. Eye injuries have lower requirements on laser power/collimation.