President has to win two elections in a row I.e like Obama 2008 and 2012

Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to the election year in which a U.S. President is re-elected to an immediately consecutive second full term (i.e., winning back-to-back general elections, as Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012).

• The winning answer will be the year of the second consecutive election victory (e.g., if a candidate wins in 2028 and is re-elected in 2032, this market resolves to 2032).

• Resolution will occur once the winner of the relevant presidential election has officially secured a majority in the Electoral College certified by the joint session of the U.S. Congress (per the U.S. National Archives), or when the losing major candidate concedes and major news networks project the winner without contested results.

• If a sitting president serves out a term after ascending via succession (e.g., vice presidency) and then wins two consecutive elections in their own right, the year of their second general election victory qualifies.

• If no candidate wins two consecutive presidential elections by the latest year listed or if the market has an agreed end horizon, resolution will depend on available options or resolve to "Other" / after the final specified option.

Background

• Under the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, no person may be elected to the office of the President more than twice.

• Consecutive two-term presidencies in modern history include Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), George W. Bush (2000, 2004), and Barack Obama (2008, 2012).

• Because Donald Trump served non-consecutive terms (2016 and 2024), he is term-limited and ineligible to run in 2028. Therefore, the earliest possible consecutive two-term cycle would begin with a first-time election in 2028 and a re-election in 2032.

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