COVID-19 is the greatest pandemic of this century thus far, but not the only one in human history. Outbreaks of bubonic plague, smallpox, cholera, and Spanish flu have already plagued humanity. In recent decades, scientists have warned of the need to prepare for a pandemic like that, as globalization, agglomeration, and consumption of animals considered virus reservoirs increase the chance of new diseases.
Taking all that into account, will another pandemic strike humanity before 2025?
If by December 31st, 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares that the world is facing a new pandemic, the question resolves yes. If no pandemic is declared by December 31st, 2024, this question will be resolved as no.
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There is a big disconnect between the question and the resolution criteria. WHO tends to lag far behind reality in declaring a pandemic. For example, monkeypox is clearly pandemic by all reasonable epidemiological criteria, but the WHO has not declared it to be a pandemic. I think the chance of a new pandemic occurring "before 2025" is somewhat low (maybe 10-20%?), but the chance that WHO will declare another outbreak to be a pandemic over the next 2.25 years is almost 0.
@Predictor The resolution criteria are clear, so the question works. I simply mean to suggest that the question of whether there will be a pandemic by a certain date is quite different and separate from the question of whether the WHO will declare a pandemic by the same date.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?