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If Jordan somehow comes back I will be a very rich man

@Issc joint speakership involving Jordan being floated. Does that count?

I don't think Jordan will become speaker, but less than 1 in 10 feels pretty cheap at this point.

@DanMan314

It’s really up in the air who will be in charge but writing Jordan off so low right now seems a bit premature, Jordan’s on sale today

@DanMan314 Update: was not cheap.

@FrederickNorris God damnit

@FrederickNorris lol yup. I'm still not sure I regret the buy, I still think it was likely correct given the information available at the time. Plus I sold at like ~6% so my loss isn't too huge.

@DanMan314 I would love to have limited losses in my Speaker-related bets to 6%.

Can we clarify whether the temporary speaker being granted extra powers will resolve this market?

@MilesBorchard However this market resolves is the direction I'll go in:

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12

Who will be the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives?

Kevin McCarthy has been removed as the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Who will be the next Speaker? This market will resolve to the name of the next person to permanently take the role of the Speaker. An acting Speaker, a temporary Speaker or anyone who fills in so that a Speaker can be elected will not be counted (unless they go on to become the permanent speaker) If Kevin McCarthy is elected speaker again, the market will resolve to him rather than his future successor This is a free response market so please add anyone who you think should be in the conversation. Every additional response should be the name of one single person - please don't add something like "a black woman" or "there won't be a speaker this year" as the market will only resolve to the name of one single person! Update 13th October - because a couple of people have asked, I wanted to clarify what will happen if the House simply can't choose a Speaker. This market will resolve to the next Speaker of the House, no matter how long that takes. If there is no Speaker for the next year and a half, the market will resolve to the first Speaker after the 2024 election. Or the 2026 election. Patrick McHenry is currently the Speaker pro tempore. If he starts to carry out House business or is granted more of the powers of Speaker, this market will not resolve to him unless he formally becomes the Speaker of the House. While we're waiting, there are a lot of other markets on the Speaker race. You can see them all here but here are a few markets on what happens next and how long we're going to be waiting: @/SimonGrayson/when-will-the-first-house-vote-for @/zzlk/how-long-will-the-house-be-without @/KnowNothing/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-on

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/19/jim-jordan-house-speaker-vote-detractors

Literally whoelse would it be

@MilesBorchard If there was any chance of someone being in the vein of McCarthy it would be Scalise, the far right is done with that type of speaker

There are no other names in the hat at this point, it will be Jordan even if it takes another 15 votes

https://x.com/mzanona/status/1714712263498620951?s=46

I'm gonna sell Jordan Yes and then they're gonna do 20 more votes and elect him.

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/17/house-speaker-republicans-no-vote-jim-jordan

@MickBransfield I read that article to say basically he is on the brink. The more I think about it the clearer it gets that there is no other GOP option, the hard right will never allow anyone else other than Jordan to be Speaker and its very unlikely Jefferies can win over 10 to vote present. And the Democrats may have been banking on Jordan the whole time since he will only make them look good. I wonder if he will defund the FBI and DoJ or any of the other wacko things his followers are counting on.

@BTE I tend to agree that in the end it will be Jordan, unless the Dems are able to do something creative (like voting a bloc for Liz Cheney), but this market will be up and down until then. (Caveat: I thought Scalise was free money, since it was such an obvious GOP W.)

@FrederickNorris @BTE I don't know how this ends, but I don't see the incentives for the Jordan holdouts to flip Yes.

@MickBransfield "We decided to come together in good faith" to just bring some finality to the process. What they DON'T have is an alternative, and the fault for that lies at the feet of my beloved Dems.

@FrederickNorris Hastert was a compromise candidate back in the day, and he's the longest serving Republican speaker in history. (No clue if he is currently in or out of prison.)

@MickBransfield I worked for Denny. He was universally liked in DC. Paul Ryan was also a good compromise because it’s hard not to take him seriously because he takes shit very seriously. Who is the Hastert or Ryan today?? Idk that they exist.

@BTE Hakeem said in a presser today he respects McHenry, and many other Rs, but Jim Jordan is not one of them.

@MickBransfield From Wikipedia. This is a record that wants to be broken, methinks.

Hastert was imprisoned in 2016 and was released 13 months later.[8] He became the highest-ranking elected official in U.S. history to serve a prison sentence.[3]

@BTE What years were you there?

@FrederickNorris What about Emmer/Stefanik? Intuitively they feel underrated to me

@FrederickNorris Summer 2005. Best internship in DC. Me and a bunch of West Point cadets. I regretted it for a long time not taking a job planning his overseas travel because I didn’t want to be one of the staff assistants that are glorified tour guides or secretaries. But in retrospect, now that we know what we know, it definitely kinda felt like being groomed so no regrets now haha.

@BTE These are some receipts, my friend!

@Conflux Stefanik not overrated, but Emmer is a possibility, I'd expect.

@BTE Will it help to flip Jordan NOs by saying in his nomination speech that he has the courage to cut Medicare and Social Security?

@FrederickNorris Haha, no they all know he would do that. I think the RINOs are the holdouts so he should commit in writing not to do that and then maybe.