Interesting question! I think to push Nvidia up to this threshold someone really needs to demonstrate a model with much greater capabilities than what we've seen so far, and for investors to make the connection between that and the share price in their heads. Maybe something with o4 or gpt-5 will really look like a breakthrough before the end of the year?

So far o3 doesn't really appear to have made a huge impact on Nvidia stock. But maybe investors haven't connected the dots yet? Or perhaps they don't see this as being advantageous for Nvidia?

Might be closely related, it's hard to imagine an entirely new company going all the way to 5 trillion, and I'd be surprised if Apple, Microsoft, or Google could gain so much value so quickly, though it's not impossible. Just a very naive guess, though!