Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2024?
9
91
275
Jul 4
75%
Better
18%
Worse
6%
The same

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

What would be the condition for “the same?”

Better than what, by what metric?

@jskf Probably Brier score, right? But then it's very unlikely to be exactly the same.

https://manifold.markets/calibration
(The page seems to not loading at the moment though...)