Resolved 28%. Context: I am in 8th grade. For weeks, my grade has been buzzing about an anonymous TikTok account that posts about people’s relationships. Rumors started that I knew who was behind it. I didn’t — but that didn’t stop people from pressing me, and at one point someone even offered me $100 cash for a name I didn’t have. Rather than take money (which would’ve been dishonest and wrong), I decided to poke fun at the whole situation. I sent out an email saying I’d reveal the account’s identity in the Dining Hall — but only if 15 classmates signed up for Manifold Markets using my referral link. The “big reveal” would have been a Python script that fakes an IP trace before ending with: “IP not found. Thanks for the fake internet points!” Now the school administration has seen the email and asked me to explain myself. The question is: will this be treated as a harmless stunt that goes no further, or will it end with real disciplinary consequences? Resolution criteria: If I am expelled: resolves YES. If I get a long suspension (>3 days): 90% If I get a short suspension (≤3 days): 80% If I get a detention: 10% if one day, +2.5% for each additional day If I get a talking to and nothing else: 5% If no punishment: resolves NO. If I get a cruel or unusual punishment, resolves based on my personal judgement of how bad it is compared to the other options. If you would like to see the full email exchange go here: https://manifold.markets/post/evidence-that-my-market-isnt-a-scam