The Great Manifold Bakeoff: Will Mary Smith's bread (YES) improve more than RealDonaldTrump's Chili (NO) by September 30
8
100Ṁ248
Sep 30
14%
chance

@MarySmith asked Manifold to help her improve her bread

@realDonaldTrump, frustrated that Mary hasn't resolved an option "YES" yet, opened his own poll asking Manifold to improve his chili.

Thus we find ourselves here: over the next two months, I will count the options resolved YES by @MarySmith in her Bread Question and @realDonaldTrump in his Chili Question.

This market resolves YES if, by 11:59PM EST on September 30, Mary has resolved more options YES on her bread question. It resolves NO at that time if Trump has resolved more options YES on his chili question. And it resolves N/A on a tie.

As always, good fun, and have luck!

Mary Bread Question

Trump Chili Question

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The chili question accepts more kinds of answers like pure hypotheticals, so I expect it to rack up more YESes, sooner.

@Velaris hope this is clearer, and more accurate :)

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