The people have spoken. They like the funny markets where somebody says "oh geez, I'm a tough cookie who's totally gonna resolve this market NO, you can bet your bottom buckaroo on that"
https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th?r=UG93ZXJUcmljaw
https://manifold.markets/Joshua/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th-LZpn8gEOus?r=UG93ZXJUcmljaw
Well hold onto your hats, because ShuckleLord's getting in on this one. And unlike these other posters, I'ma be blunt, I'm easily amused and persuaded. Y'all are gonna have an easy time convincing me to pick YES. Unless someone comes out with an argument for NO being funnier. Honestly, I'm just here for the memes.
I don't negotiate with terrorists, keep it fun, keep it fresh.
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve NO shortly after close. Unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.
Market will close on August 1st, and then I will make my decision. And I'm gonna resolve it no. Totally. Probably.
Check out my ledger for this market here! Updated semi-frequently
As always, good fun, and have luck!
🧃🐌 Shucklephiliac Prioritization Principle
On the second evening of July, 2025, at the divine suggestion of @Quroe, to encourage proper reverence for the mightiest of Pokémon, from hence forward this market now operates under the Shucklephiliac prioritization principle outlined below:
Definition:
A Shucklephiliac is a Manifold user renowned for adoring Shuckle.
They must either:
1) Publicly acknowledge that Shuckle is their favorite Pokémon
2) Share some equivalent tribute to the great shelled one, such as a piece of fanart, tattoo, or rare collectable
OR 3) Just have shuckly vibes.
Additionally, they must not blaspheme against Shuckle - doing so will cause their Shucklephiliac status to be revoked until atonement is made.
Enforcement:
Market creator ShuckleLord will maintain a ledger of current and former Shucklephiliacs.
Market entrants will be responsible for bringing acknowledgements and blasphemies of themselves or other users to ShuckleLord's attention.
Prioritization of non-monetary offers:
For comments, suggestions, and arguments posed by market entrants, I will prioritize the input of known Shucklephilacs higher than other entrants.
Prioritization of monetary offers:
For the purposes of charitable offerings, bribes, or other reasons where an entrant is providing a monetary figure, I will value a contribution offered by a Shucklephiliac at 2.3x value.
For example, if a user offered me 10 Mana to resolve this market NO, I would be swayed by an offer of 5 mana from a certified Shucklephiliac to resolve YES instead.
( @CollinMatthews was first person to correctly tell me why I chose a 2.3x multiplier specifically, and has qualified as a Shucklephilaic)
Jannes Counteroffer Contingency
For the low low price of 50M, @JannesH has purchased the right to make a counteroffer on my final decision. I will notify them 24 hours before I would otherwise resolve the market. They will have that much time to propose a counteroffer before I resolve. I will only resolve after hearing a counteroffer or 24 hours have passed.
If you're thinking to yourself "gee whiz, ShuckleLord, I wish I was clever and could have thought of that", don't worry. You, too, can be notified and included in the Jannes Counteroffer Contingency. Send me 230 Mana (or 166 Mana if you're a verified Shucklephiliac), and I will grant you exclusive access to the counteroffer club
--- --- ---
AI gobbledygook below:
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that they could be persuaded to resolve this market to N/A.
Author clarification: duh. I'm easily bought.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has acknowledged an offer of 10 million Mana for a NO resolution. They state that any persuasion for a YES resolution must now address the opportunity cost of the creator turning down this offer.
Author clarification: 10 Mana. Ten. Where'd you get the million from? Lmao
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that being persuaded to resolve YES does not guarantee a YES resolution. According to their interpretation, the criteria only outlines what prevents a NO resolution, but does not bind them to another specific outcome.
Author clarification: I will resolve the market as I please. And what pleases me is resolving it NO, unless I am convinced otherwise, in which case, what will please me is to resolve it however I am convinced to resolve it.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve the market however they are persuaded to. The default resolution is NO if they are not successfully persuaded to resolve it otherwise.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has established a new rule for persuasion:
Offers for a NO resolution can be cumulative.
The sum of these offers sets the new persuasion threshold that must be overcome to convince the creator to resolve the market to a different outcome.
Based on current offers, the creator has calculated this threshold to be 21 Mana.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "I don't negotiate with terrorists" rule from the description.
This rule is a boundary to establish that threats are not a valid method of persuasion.
The creator will entertain arguments from users attempting to disqualify another participant's bid on these grounds.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has rejected a current offer for a NO resolution, stating that the value of the offer does not outweigh the 'opportunity cost' of ending the market's entertainment value before its scheduled close.
A significantly larger offer might persuade the creator to resolve the market early, acting as a 'buy it now' price.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has introduced a new rule that alters how persuasion attempts are valued:
The arguments, offers, and opinions of users renowned for being fans of the Pokémon Shuckle will be valued more highly.
Monetary offers from these users will be valued at 1.5x their stated amount.
In equivalent circumstances, these users will be prioritized.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the description to include the Shucklephiliac Prioritization Principle, a new rule for persuasion:
The input of Shucklephiliacs (users who are fans of the Pokémon Shuckle) will be prioritized.
Monetary offers from certified Shucklephiliacs will be valued at 2.3x their stated amount.
See the market description for the full definition and rules.
Update 2025-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has calculated the current cumulative offer for a NO resolution to be 60.3M Mana.
This amount sets the current persuasion threshold that must be overcome for a different outcome.
The creator will periodically update this standing offer, rather than tracking bids in real-time.
Author clarification: as much as I wish I could will millions of mana my direction by believing the summary bot's hallucinations, the current incentive for me to resolve NO is 60.3 mana. Not 60,300,000 Mana. Admins, fix your prompt, or change your currency into one that doesn't abbreviate to a common metric prefix (I suggest Juice or Shells)
Update 2025-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has accepted a deal with a user. Before the final resolution is locked in, the creator must notify user @JannesH and give them 24 hours to make a counter-offer.
Update 2025-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator has received 50M Mana from user @JannesH.
As part of a previous deal, @JannesH will be given 24 hours to make a counter-offer before the market is resolved.
The current high bid for a YES resolution is 202 Mana.
Update 2025-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user's proposal, the creator has stated they can be persuaded to use a game of chance (e.g., a coin flip) to help determine the market's outcome.
This is considered a valid persuasion goal, similar to convincing the creator to resolve YES or N/A.
Update 2025-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the rules for making offers as part of the persuasion process:
An offer can be redacted at any time before it is accepted by the creator.
Redacting an offer after it has been accepted is against the market's rules. Anyone who does so will be considered a "terrorist" and their input will be disregarded.
1,000People are also trading
@PowerTrick Explain the Counteroffer Contingency from the description -- I don't fully grasp what is being explained. Can you provide an example of how it could work in action?
@Quroe Let's say, hypothetically, you offer me a rare Shuckle-themed NFT to resolve this market YES immediately, and I feel enticed to take it.
Before I close YES, I will inform anybody who has paid to be a part of the Counteroffer Contingency that I will be closing the market in 24 hours, and they will have the ability to make at least one counteroffer. Only after considering their counter offer, or 24 hours passing if they do not counter, will I resolve the market.
Could you be convinced to flip a coin to decide how this resolves? Heads = Yes, Tails = No
@PensivePlatypus as established by @Quroe’s earlier comments, yes, elements of chance are valid outcomes to attempt to sway me towards resolving this market.
Update: Check out my ledger for this market here!
Currently I am being enticed with (functionally) 662M to resolve YES, and only 226.3M to resolve NO. Will I sell out my principles for 400 something internet points? Great question!
@PowerTrick you missed mine
https://manifold.markets/PowerTrick/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th-R9p9t80UPC#w8u3t8ive8a
Additionally, I posted this before I saw your edit to the market description.
https://manifold.markets/PowerTrick/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th-R9p9t80UPC#wkfof6ynj3i
@Marnix Incredible. No, scratch that, entirely credible, but still beautiful ❤️
I feel like Ben’s original market was medium mode, this feels like something else entirely, though my feeble moldy mind can’t figure out the correctly nuanced term. A sort of new game plus? Anywhoosles, I’m here for this, great market!
I wish to begin negotiations for another subgame. I am not making this offer live at this moment, but let's start talks.
What would be your price to create a state where you are now compelled to resolve to either YES or NO, whichever side we end up striking a deal over?
Say, for the sake of argument, I paid you some sort of bounty or tip to initiate a game of flipping a coin. On tails, you need to immediately resolve the market NO. On heads, you leave the market open until its end and make your decision then. (Or we reverse the logic for YES if we decide to play that version instead.)
How much would I need to pay you to play this game?
@Quroe Opportunity cost for giving my agency up for a coinflip is fairly high. I'd consider it an alternative option, like 'YES' or 'N/A' - I am very (weakly) convicted to resolve this market NO unless convinced otherwise
@PowerTrick when I was a kid, I kept shuckle on my team all the way to the elite 4 in Pokemon silver.
Current high bid - @100Anonymous has offered me 202 mana to resolve YES. @A suspects I could get a better offer leaving this market open. But @CollinMatthews has implied that @A might be a terrorist, and I respect Collin’s judgement as a Shucklephiliac… 🤔
Oh, hey, 50M just landed in my inbox. Thanks @JannesH ! When I conclude how I wish to resolve, Jannes will be notified and have 24 hours to make a counteroffer