This market resolves YES if, by April 1, 2025, Prime Minister Netanyahu or his government takes concrete actions that directly defy the Israeli Supreme Court's orders regarding the dismissal of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar. This could include:
Appointing a new Shin Bet chief despite court orders not to do so
Forcibly removing Bar from his position while the court order is still in effect
Officially declaring they will not comply with the court's ruling
The market resolves NO if the Netanyahu government complies with court orders, reaches a compromise, or the issue is resolved through legal channels without defiance by April 1, 2025.
Resolution will be based on credible news sources such as The Times of Israel, France24, or CBC News.
Sources:
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Netanyahu to appoint deputy Shin Bet chief as interim leader
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to appoint Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) Deputy Director “S.” as acting director until a permanent appointment is made, the Prime Minister’s Office said Wednesday.
Since Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar’s term ends on April 10, “it will not be possible to approve a permanent Shin Bet chief through the Grunis Committee in time,” it said.
@PoliticalEconomyPK I'm American and ignorant (probably relatedly), so at the ping I took my 5 Mana profit and ran, lol.
Can Israeli manifold users weigh in? It appears from my research online that Netanyahu has not defied the court's order. Yet. The court has allowed him to look for and interview replacements but their appointment to the post will be subject to the decision of the court. So this seems like a clear NO
from march 31? https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-03-31/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-names-new-shin-bet-chief-despite-freeze-on-currents-ousting/00000195-ea77-d1f1-a7d5-faf7a1260000 or https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250331-israel-netanyahu-defies-court-freeze-name-ex-navy-commander-new-security-chief-shin-bet seems like a straightforward yes.
the headline of either article alone is sufficient. Or the headline here, which corroborates there was a nomination https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-04-01/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-rescinds-nomination-of-new-shin-bet-head-amid-likud-backlash/00000195-f043-dfc7-a5dd-f5fb07190000 or this article https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/31/netanyahu-nominates-new-israeli-spy-chief-despite-court-order
@TylerS im not denying that. Netanyahu is allowed to interview and nominate a replacement but their appointment will be subject to the court's decision. Or so I read
You wouldn't say this doesn't count as a "concrete action"? Would you?
If you want to decide NO, which of the three do you believe is true?
The market resolves NO if the Netanyahu government complies with court orders, reaches a compromise, or the issue is resolved through legal channels without defiance by April 1, 2025.
the YES criteria are a lot more convincing than the NO. Do you believe he and his cabinet deciding to remove the former leader doesn't qualify? https://www.jns.org/the-ronen-bar-dismissal/