Will the 2024 election be an exact repeat of 2020?
26
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Dec 1
4%
chance

Resolves YES if all of the following happen in the 2024 U.S. presidential election:

  • The Democratic nominee is President Joe Biden, and the Republican nominee is Donald Trump, Sr.

  • Every single state, as well as D.C. and all Congressional districts that have electoral votes, vote for the same candidate in 2024 as they did in 2020.

  • There are no faithless electors.

  • No state changes its rules in a way that affects how many electoral votes they give to each candidate, such as apportioning theirs by Congressional district when they didn't in 2020. The changes in the number of electoral votes of each state due to the 2020 census doesn't count as a change in rules, and any other rule change only counts if the number of electoral votes given to a candidate would have been different had the rule not been in effect.

  • No new states are added to the Union, with the possible exception of D.C.

  • The president is still elected via the Electoral College.

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