Will Manifold allow creators to keep their unique trader bonuses if their market resolves N/A in 2023?
16
210แน€2550
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

When a market resolves N/A, Manifold basically treats it as if the market never existed: Profits and losses are removed from the accounts of people who made them, all the mana spent on shares and subsidies is returned, and the creator gets back the 50 mana required to make the market but loses all the unique trader bonuses. However, the unique trader bonuses are not really part of the market itself - they are more of a meta aspect - so it would be possible to have markets resolve N/A while still allowing creators to keep the bonuses.

On the one hand, removing the bonuses is useful because it discourages N/A resolutions in cases where they are unnecessary and encourages creators to make the resolution criteria clear, since they wouldn't want to have to resolve a market N/A due to unclear criteria. On the other hand, it also discourages creators from resolving to N/A when that really should be the resolution, if they got a bunch of unique traders. For example, creators may decide a definite resolution despite a very ambiguous situation that is not covered at all by the resolution criteria, or they may resolve to PROB instead of N/A. It also discourages creators from making conditional markets.

At any point in 2023, will Manifold change the way UTBs are returned after an N/A resolution? It still counts even if they reverse the new rule, or if the creator only gets to keep some of the unique trader bonuses (e.g., N/A causes the creator to lose half of the mana they got in UTBs).

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@PlasmaBallin Why do I find edge cases every time I read your markets ๐Ÿ˜‚

I have personally kept unique trader bonuses from unlinked multiple choice answers that resolved N/A.

This came to be a point of discussion during /sophiawisdom/why-was-sam-altman-fired, when many answers were N/A'd, but the UTBs are still retained as of today, when answers resolve N/A.

I see you are a No holder, so I'm not brave enough to buy Yes, but maybe someone else will.

predictedNO

@Eliza Do you just mean that UTBs for some answers on the market are retained even though other answers resolved N/A? That would definitely not qualify for a YES resolution.

@PlasmaBallin No, your bonuses from the answers that get N/Ad are retained.

For example: Get 10 people to bet on your answer -> get 30 trader bonus mana -> that answer resolves N/A -> you keep the 30 bonus.

@Eliza Hm, do you know if this is intentional or not? My guess is that it's not, but if it is intentional, then I'll have to think about how to adjudicate this.

@PlasmaBallin The Manifold team 100% knows and has done nothing about it.

@Eliza That's different from it being intentional, though. It could just be a bug they haven't gotten around to fixing.

@PlasmaBallin And I didn't answer your question directly ๐Ÿ˜œ

Do you want to unlock the secret screenshot?

@Eliza Okay, in that case, I'm going with, "It doesn't count because it's just a bug."

(marked as predictive ๐Ÿ‘ )

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