Resolves YES if the result of Is rationalussy good or bad? is mathematically determined by the end of May in Eastern Time. That means that, the result is either guaranteed to be YES or to be NO, regardless of what the probability is for any time in June.
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3.00@JosephNoonan Is it ok if I ask you to confirm with your script and some simple calculations, before I resolve this silly derivative? Thanks in advance.
If my calculations are right, I think it’s now impossible for NO (in the referenced market) to force a determination in May. Even if the probability was kept at zero from this moment until midnight June 1st Eastern, then YES would still have a tiny mathematical chance of winning by averaging >99.77% over the remaining time (June 1-9).
On the other hand, YES can still mathematically force a win in May by averaging >93.04% from this moment until the end of May, then NO cannot win even if the probability was zero over the remaining time in June.