Will ‘Will "Is rationalussy good or bad?" be determined in May?’ be determined today?

248

Ṁ1.5K

Ṁ70

resolved May 25

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if the result of

/JosephNoonan/will-is-rationalussy-good-or-bad-be-5698d3382864

is mathematically determined by the end of today, May 24 in Eastern Time. That means that the result is guaranteed to be NO (it can't be guaranteed YES by today), regardless of what the probability of that market's underlying is for any time after today.

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10 Comments

2 Holders

17 Trades

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'll double check my calculations before I make a definitive statement, but I'm pretty sure it is still technically possible for Team YES to force a win, and it seems like it still will be in 3 hr.

bought Ṁ19 of YES

@JosephNoonan Thanks, I'll show you mine if you show me yours? :)

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Can't argue with math so must be one of our assumptions is incorrect.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@deagol Your calculations were right

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan yeah I was pretty sure thus why I created the market. Would’ve been quite a facepalm for me if I didn’t think it through. Thanks again!

Oh btw I think I can resolve this, confirm?

predicted YES

@deagol Yeah, my calculations now say that even if the probability was 100% between now and the end of May, Team NO could win by holding the average to <.5% in June.

bought Ṁ144 of YES

@JosephNoonan right, and the point in time when this happened was today at 7:22:22 PM Eastern, about 90 minutes before I bid it to 89%. I was pretty sure but still 10% wary given what happened the other day with missing data. And when you questioned it, my doubts turned to 30% worries lol

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@deagol The way the code was set up, it was easier to modify it to calculate what would happen if the average was 100% from the time of the last trade to the end of May, rather than from now until the end of May. So, I just did that, and then traded on the market right before running the code so that the two times would coincide. The problem was that, the first time I tried this, I bet using a limit order, which was ignored by the code because it wasn't filled. Once I bet by buying a share, the code showed that it is in fact impossible to force a win in May.

predicted YES

@deagol Yeah, I probably would have bet this lower if it wasn't for your comments that said it would need a higher percentage to resolve NO. I bet it down to 50% because I figured one of us had to have made a mistake, and I didn't know which one.