I'll double check my calculations before I make a definitive statement, but I'm pretty sure it is still technically possible for Team YES to force a win, and it seems like it still will be in 3 hr.

@JosephNoonan Thanks, I'll show you mine if you show me yours? :)

@JosephNoonan Can't argue with math so must be one of our assumptions is incorrect.

@deagol Your calculations were right

@JosephNoonan yeah I was pretty sure thus why I created the market. Would’ve been quite a facepalm for me if I didn’t think it through. Thanks again!

Oh btw I think I can resolve this, confirm?

@deagol Yeah, my calculations now say that even if the probability was 100% between now and the end of May, Team NO could win by holding the average to <.5% in June.

@JosephNoonan right, and the point in time when this happened was today at 7:22:22 PM Eastern, about 90 minutes before I bid it to 89%. I was pretty sure but still 10% wary given what happened the other day with missing data. And when you questioned it, my doubts turned to 30% worries lol

@deagol The way the code was set up, it was easier to modify it to calculate what would happen if the average was 100% from the time of the last trade to the end of May, rather than from now until the end of May. So, I just did that, and then traded on the market right before running the code so that the two times would coincide. The problem was that, the first time I tried this, I bet using a limit order, which was ignored by the code because it wasn't filled. Once I bet by buying a share, the code showed that it is in fact impossible to force a win in May.

@deagol Yeah, I probably would have bet this lower if it wasn't for your comments that said it would need a higher percentage to resolve NO. I bet it down to 50% because I figured one of us had to have made a mistake, and I didn't know which one.

I think this boils down to whether the average probability of the underlying’s underlying during today is below 0.666 👀

Edit: please don’t rely blindly on this info, I could be wrong, or lying, or it could be rounded and only I know by how much. Do your own homework.