Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?
13
12
270
2030
22%
chance

Resolves YES if it is illegal nationwide for state legislatures to draw U.S. Congressional districts in a way that unfairly benefits one party, political interest, or demographic group. This could either be due to new laws forbidding partisan gerrymandering or court cases making it illegal. It would also count if every state passed their own individual laws forbidding it. Furthermore, the ban on gerrymandering must actually be enforced, either by courts striking down partisan maps, independent redistricting committees drawing fair maps, or some other measure that prevents skewed maps from actually being used in elections.

Note that, whatever law or case bans gerrymandering doesn't have to specifically state that gerrymandering based on the exact criteria I mentioned (partisan, political interests, and demographic groups) are banned, as long as the law in effect prevents that from happening. So for example, if a law that bans partisan gerrymandering is passed and effectively enforced, this market will resolve YES unless there is credible evidence that gerrymandering based on some other criterion (a specific political interest or demographics) is still being done despite the law.

The cutoff for this is the 2030 elections, so if gerrymandered districts are still being used in 2030 and every election before that, it resolves NO.

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