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Very curious why Nikki Haley is so popular. It looks like she is just a war mongerer who hasn't heard of a place she wants to bomb.

My only idea is that trump sucks up most of the vote and if you are a neocon who hates trump, you likely go for Haley. Anyone have other ideas?

@MarcusAbramovitch Yes, she sucks up the "neocon" vote (basically what is left of the traditional republican party) - but how is she a war mongerer? What I have heard from her, mainly during the debates, she just has the most milquetoast (correct, imo) opinions regarding current conflicts, supporting Ukraine, standing up for Israel, Taiwan, no? Have I missed something?

Nikki Haley was just two days too late. She's ahead by 0.1% now.

@PlasmaBallin

@CourierSix @conradgetty appreciate the tight race, gentlemen. An honor to have betted against you

@PlasmaBallin no doubt based on polls taken in 2023. Ho hum.

@JonWharf The polls, conducted in 2023, now taken into consideration by 538 show: Nikki Haley IS and WAS ahead of "DeSanctus" - making my HUGE bet on HALEY look pretty reasonable now...

@JonWharf Yes, it went up due to a Suffolk poll taken from Dec. 23 - 26. And that's the only new poll that's been released this year, so we were one poll away from a YES resolution.

There weren't even any new polls released in the last few days. Maybe we'll see if Christmas table discussions would have affected the result in the next few days.

For those who will be last-minute trading, keep in mind that this market is closing at midnight in Central Time (and also resolving based on that time zone) if you live in a different time zone and are planning last minute bets.

Since it's possible that a poll will be released tomorrow that leads to DeSantis and Haley being exactly tied in the polling average, I'll reiterate what I mentioned previously: If DeSantis is tied for second place, that still counts as being in second place, so it would still be a NO resolution. I haven't found any way to get data with higher resolution than 0.1%, so if they both have the same percentage in the polling average, rounded to the nearest 0.1%, that will be considered a tie.

@PlasmaBallin

Last weekend there was no movement whatsoever. Do you guys believe this time is going to be different?

@LeonardoKr Probably not.
It is so close. I want a recount.
Who has the github data? Maybe @ScottSupak 😂

@SirCryptomind Github data is outdated. Look for "Download the data" on the webpage.

@Shump Understood. Thanks!

@Shump Oh god, they include YouGov and Ipsos. The top 2 surveyors on "Get Paid To" websites.

Well now I know from Tomeks Biden market and this market not to put 100% trust in 538 website.

I wonder what the data would look like without the 2 companies that pay people for their survey answers.

@SirCryptomind I don't think they do that for voting polls. 538 has a long methodology section where they evaluate the quality of pollsters, I am sure they would be aware of such concerns.

@LeonardoKr I expect new polls before the EOY. This market is a good value right now because of the high unknowns.

@FrederickNorris EoY is tomorrow... maybe an NBC but I kinda doubt it.

Just to clarify: if polls that were done before EOY 2023 are published and added to 538 in 2024, I assume it still counts as DeSantis dropping to third place in 2023, correct?

Just like my grandma died in 2019 even if I didn’t find out until 2020.

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau I'd assume not, given the clarity of the description.

@Panfilo it surely is as you say

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau No, it's based on what 538's polling average actually says in 2023. Polls that are performed in 2023 but not published until later won't count.

@PlasmaBallin Fair enough. As, @Panfilo says, now that I read it carefully, the description is actually pretty clear.