Will an exotic physics catastrophe wipe out humanity by 2100?
5
130Ṁ743
2100
1.5%
chance

An exotic physics catastrophe would be any disaster that results from unusual physics that only occurs in situations far outside what normally occurs on Earth. For example, a physical effect that only occurs at extreme energies, temperatures, gravitational or EM fields, densities, etc., would count, as long as it's not something like "Earth gets crushed by the extreme force or ripped apart by the gravitational field gradient" or "We all get fried or Earth gets vaporized by the energetic blast", since those are not unusual phenomena - they are everyday phenomena taken to an extreme level.

Some examples of potential physics disasters that would count (although some of these are proven to be impossible) are:

  • A nuclear bomb ignites the atmosphere.

  • A particle accelerator creates a black hole that destroys the Earth.

  • The Universe is in a false vacuum state and decays into a true vacuum, completely altering the physics of the vacuum bubble.

  • The Big Rip happens.

  • A negatively charged strangelet converts the matter it comes into contact with into strange matter, resulting in the entire Earth becoming strange matter.

  • Earth is destroyed by coming near a cosmic string.

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@YaroslavSobolev I have a market about the Sun exploding, specifically.

With the AI wipes out humanity markets, there’s at least a plausible way for the market to ultimately resolve. Is there any plausible way for this to resolve yes even if we think the chance is nontrivial?

@Ansel I wouldn't consider "AI wipes out humanity, but it resolves our prediction markets correctly," to be very plausible. But no, there isn't a plausible way for this to resolve YES either.

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