Will a Republican win Nevada in the 2024 POTUS election?
20
1.9k
Dec 1
52%
chance

Nevada has been a very close state in most recent elections. Will Republicans flip it in 2024?

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Nevada is a bit more Democratic than the nation, so this market should be lower than (100 minus the below percentage) [EDIT: actually it’s more Republican, so the market should be a bit higher than I thought]

predicts YES

@Conflux It was barely more Democratic than the nation in 2016 (a margin of 2.4 versus 2.1) and it was less Democratic than the nation in 2020 (2.4 versus 4.5). Trends aren't looking great for Democrats there, and Republicans also unseated an incumbent Democratic governor in 2022, albeit narrowly. I think P(Republican wins Nevada) > P(Republican wins the election), particularly because Nevada only has six EC votes and could flip red with relatively minimal impact on the election (versus, say, PA with 19 EC votes, MI with 15 EC votes, etc.)

predicts NO

@evergreenemily Oh, thanks for those numbers! I was misremembering (I knew that Nevada went for the winner in every election 1912-2012 except 1976, and then broke the trend to vote for Hillary, and I knew it was in the West where Dems are doing relatively better, but that doesn’t actually mean it’s much more Democratic). I now agree that Reps are more likely to win Nevada than the election

predicts YES

@Conflux No problem! Nevada is the big exception to Democrats gaining ground out West, for whatever reason - it was more Democratic than the country from 2008-2016, and then flipped around.

predicts NO

@evergreenemily Hmm. So maybe we will see some regression to the mean in ‘24 after all?

predicts YES

@Conflux Potentially! Or trends could continue (e.g. Colorado and Washington getting bluer without many signs of stopping or slowing down.)