Submit markets to be considered for the Manifold Market of the Year! What market do you think has been the most important, influential, interesting, and fun? Only markets that were open during some part of 2023 count.
Since I don't have any good way of selecting the winner aside from a vote, this will be a "Manifold's choice" award, i.e., the winner is chosen by all Manifold users who participate. The vote will use STAR voting.
Destiny-related markets are banned from consideration as a punishment for manipulating /Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year-f73c35350567 and because, let's be real, the Market of the Year wasn't a Destiny market.
1,000
3.00The votes are in, with 26 total responses. Here are options ranked by total score:
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? (105)
Who will be TIME's Person of the Year 2023? (83)
Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023) (79)
Who will be the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives? (74)
Why was Sam Altman fired? (59)
Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares? (55)
Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends? (53)
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (49)
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? (46, tied)
Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023? (46, tied)
Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? ("The Market") (36, tied)
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023? (36,tied)
Is Manifold just a bunch of white guys? (13, tied)
Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024? (13, tied)
What is Manifold's favorite movie? (11)
So the automatic runoff was between LK-99 and TIME Person of the Year. LK-99 was ranked higher on 15 ballots and TIME PotY on 5 ballots (they were ranked the same on the other 6 ballots). So LK-99 is the winner.
Here is the poll for selecting the winner: https://forms.gle/hx5a4djGTgFL39qt9
I included the Destiny market on there even though it's disqualified so that Destiny fans can still vote on it. It just won't be counted as the winner even if it beats all the other options due to the prohibition.
@PlasmaBallin Also, for those wondering why I banned Destiny markets, the reason was basically that I wanted the result to accurately reflect what market is actually considered the "market of the year" by regular users of the site, not just the one that's about a streamer whose fans are dedicated enough to show up in large numbers if someone directs them to vote in the poll. In principle, it's possible that other options could be manipulated in the same way, but the Destiny community is the only one I know of that has actually done it, and it would be kind of lame if they were able to do it again. It would be boring if any "X of the Year" market is just "Destiny, because the Destiny community is going to show up to manipulate it."
Destiny-related markets are banned from consideration as a punishment for manipulating Who will be The Manifold's Choice Person of the Year 2023? [Free Response - Fixed Payout] and because, let's be real, the Market of the Year wasn't a Destiny market.
@PlasmaBallin oh. Was this disclaimer about destiny markets here since the beginning or was it edited in recently? I'm trying to gauge whether I made the mistake of betting without reading or if you are trying to ROB me out of 65 mana D;
@dgga It was there from the beginning (you can check the market history to confirm). After seeing what happened in the Person of the Year market, I was afraid the same thing would happen to this one unless I banned Destiny markets.
@PlasmaBallin so my mistake then.
Fwiw I do not agree with banning a market that definitely was market of the year for a sizable part of the community, but it's not my prerogative to fight about that. I just think that if you do not want a vocal minority, that votes more aggressively, to win by default, there should be other means to combat that, than blanket-banning one of the more popular categories for no other reason than "you guys are too active".
As is, nothing is stopping any other community from executing the exact same shenenigans as happened with the PotY market. Or worse, since at least that "manipulation" (linking the polls in a chatroom a few times) was not done for anyone's profit.
@dgga Destiny is the gamestonk of Manifold. It would be rational to consider the irrationality of some market actors and act upon that irrationality, rather than outright ban.
But... you did state this in the original rules and I did read them before I added the Destiny option but I still added it b/c fuck communism and via la FREE MARKET. You'll end up making mana off that option as the state, while you rob your citizens and Destiny lovers.
The irony of manipulating your own market to stop "market manipulation" is something else.
@dgga If they happen to be more active, that seems fine to me. If they were linked to the market by other people who knew they would also vote the same way, either through a discord they share or a stream or wtv else, that seems to defeat the worth of the poll in determining actual facts about the average active manifold user's most significant market of the year or wtv. Does that make sense
@TheBayesian it does make sense, all I'm saying is that blanket-banning markets specifically pertaining to an existing, significant portion of the manifold community is lame and fixes nothing about the format issue. Someone could still add like a taylor swift market and link it to a 4th grader discord and that market would win, because there are no means to protect against market manipulation itself.
If I was petty I would do something like that just to protest but I have no time right now, nor any ill will towards anyone participating in this market, especially not towards @PlasmaBallin so I won't.
@AxelJacobsen I will send out an actual poll via Google form. The market itself is just to predict the results, it isn't self-resolving.
@Joshua I just realized that I completely forgot to actually explain what the Market of the Year is supposed to be in the description and only explained how this will resolve. I updated the description.