Trump's election chances, depending on whether he gets convicted by Election Day
αΉ€1k
Nov 18
39%
Trump gets convicted before Election Day; Trump wins the election
47%
Trump gets convicted before Election Day; Trump loses the election
10%
Trump doesn't get convicted before Election Day; Trump wins the election
3%
Trump doesn't get convicted before Election Day; Trump loses the election

There have been a number of conditional markets made about how Trump's chances of winning the election will be affected by being convicted of a crime. However, it can be hard to judge how those conditionals affect the overall probability if we don't also have some idea of how likely Trump is to be convicted in the first place, and it's useful to aggregate these all into a single market that won't resolve N/A anyway.

The first part of each option resolves depending on whether Trump is convicted of a crime before Election Day 2024, and latter part is based on whether he is elected president in 2024. I will still count it as "losing the election" if he doesn't win because of some unusual circumstance, like being ruled ineligible to run.

See the other markets this is meant as an aggregation of:

/PlasmaBallin/conditional-on-being-convicted-befo

/FreshFrier/conditional-on-not-being-convicted

/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres

/EdVanDorn/will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-a-e5ef5bff647d (and a lot of other markets that ask the same question)

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Trump gets convicted before Election Day; Trump loses the election
bought αΉ€100 Trump gets convicted... NO

The main election market currently gives Trump a 49% chance of winning. No one should be betting this option higher than 51% because you can get a better price there for an event that's strictly more likely.

Arb but just felonies:

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