Conditional on being convicted before Election Day 2024, will Trump win the 2024 election?
Nov 6

If Donald Trump is convicted of any crime before the day that the 2024 general election takes place, this resolves based on whether he wins the election. Otherwise, it resolves N/A.

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opened a Ṁ55 NO at 43% order

This market doesn't specify that it needs to be felony charges nor federal charges, so this should be identical to his odds here:

bought Ṁ50 YES

Hasn't he already been found guilty in the NY Fraud case? This should now have identical odds to his probability of winning overall...

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