Conditional on being convicted before Election Day 2024, will Trump win the 2024 election?
34
242
1k
Nov 6
47%
chance

If Donald Trump is convicted of any crime before the day that the 2024 general election takes place, this resolves based on whether he wins the election. Otherwise, it resolves N/A.

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opened a Ṁ55 NO at 43% order

This market doesn't specify that it needs to be felony charges nor federal charges, so this should be identical to his odds here: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

bought Ṁ50 YES

Hasn't he already been found guilty in the NY Fraud case? This should now have identical odds to his probability of winning overall...

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