All my Plasma's Manifold Survey markets close at midnight tonight. After then, I will stop accepting responses on the survey, so that I can collect the results. I plan to make a series of Substack posts containing the results so that everyone can see them all in one place, rather than having to look at individual markets to see them. Most of these should just be simple things that I can read off a graph, but some will require a little more analysis, like the percentage of white males on Manifold.
This market resolves based on the amount of time between midnight tonight and the time that my last market that is directly about the results of the survey resolves. (So markets like /JosephNoonan/will-i-be-able-to-guess-which-respo don't count, since they aren't directly about the results).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ248 | |
| 2 | Ṁ113 | |
| 3 | Ṁ113 | |
| 4 | Ṁ110 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
People are also trading
@lag Philosophy section will be released very soon (i.e., today, or tomorrow if it's not past midnight for you yet). Not sure about the final section, but I think it will take less time to write up.
@lag People will bet NO on it. That's not going to cause anyone to lose mana, unless they unwisely put limit orders that don't expire on it. But more importantly, people will still want to bet on the other options, so there's no reason to close it early.
There is a commonly suggested feature to be able to resolve some options to NO early for situations like this, but it hasn't been implemented yet.
BTW, here's the survey link, if anyone stumbles upon this market and wants to take it in the last four hours: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9