Has any "Will this market close at X%?" market resolved YES?
13
270Ṁ1357
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if someone can find me an example before close, and NO otherwise. It must have resolved before this market was created.

To count as a "Will this market close at X%?" market, the resolution criteria for the market must be solely based on what probability it closes at, and the range of values which would qualify for a YES resolution must be at most 1% wide. So, for example, "Will this market close at 42%?" or "Will this market close at 0.1%?" would count, regardless of whether they were based on the displayed/rounded or exact percentage, but "Will this market close at a prime number?" or "Will this market close at 40 to 50%?" would not. If the market asked, "Will this market close at <=1%?", then it would not count if it was based on the rounded percentage (since then anything from 0 to 1.05% would cause a YES resolution), but it would count if it was based on the exact percentage (since then the range is 0 to 1%).

Also, the range of values that give a YES resolution must be a single interval, so no funny business like, "Will this market close at a rational percentage?" (which would otherwise work, since the rationals have zero Lebesgue measure).

Credit to Jacy Reese Anthis for asking this question.

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