Resolves YES if someone can find me an example before close, and NO otherwise. It must have resolved before this market was created.
To count as a "Will this market close at X%?" market, the resolution criteria for the market must be solely based on what probability it closes at, and the range of values which would qualify for a YES resolution must be at most 1% wide. So, for example, "Will this market close at 42%?" or "Will this market close at 0.1%?" would count, regardless of whether they were based on the displayed/rounded or exact percentage, but "Will this market close at a prime number?" or "Will this market close at 40 to 50%?" would not. If the market asked, "Will this market close at <=1%?", then it would not count if it was based on the rounded percentage (since then anything from 0 to 1.05% would cause a YES resolution), but it would count if it was based on the exact percentage (since then the range is 0 to 1%).
Also, the range of values that give a YES resolution must be a single interval, so no funny business like, "Will this market close at a rational percentage?" (which would otherwise work, since the rationals have zero Lebesgue measure).
Credit to Jacy Reese Anthis for asking this question.
@RobertCousineau Sorry for not responding earlier. Since the resolution criteria were based on whether someone could find me an example, it would have to be one that I can actually verify meets the criteria. So a private market would only count if it was proven to meet the criteria to me, despite me not being a part of the market.
All markets I've found so far:
1% https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-this-market-close-at-1
5% https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-this-market-close-at-5
5% https://manifold.markets/Cactus/will-this-market-close-at-5-bf592d1752de
10% https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-this-market-close-at-10
20% https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-this-market-close-at-20
30% https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-this-market-close-at-30
40% https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-this-market-close-at-40
50% https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarketsUser/will-this-market-close-at-50
69% https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-this-market-close-at-69-c527c14394da
90% https://manifold.markets/Cactus/will-this-market-close-at-90