3
Will this market close at 69%?
JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan
66
closes Jun 9
10%
chance

Self-explanatory. Based on the probability displayed on Manifold (i.e., whatever whole percentage Manifold rounds it to)

Self-resolving
Whale Watching
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JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonanis predicting YES at 8%

Hm, this market is getting close to 69 traders. Imagine if it closes at 69% on 6/9 with 69 traders.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellobought Ṁ0 of YES

Will this market close at…

Market says close is 6/9 (67%) at 4:20 so same 1:5 odds of a die roll (17%), so EV is the product 1/9=11% 🤔 well priced! 😂

RahulShah avatar
Rahul Shahis predicting NO at 13%

I’m going to let this go up naturally then buy a bunch down later lol

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan

Interesting that this one is already down to 15%, even though Adrian's market was never that low, except for a brief spike downward. Maybe people are taking into account the NO resolution of his market as an additional piece of information. Or maybe it's because this one doesn't close until 6/9, and the longer time frame will allow its liquidity to increase, making it riskier for someone to spike it to 69% last minute.

RahulShah avatar
Rahul Shahbought Ṁ361 of NO

@JosephNoonan Yeah bit both resolved no haha so here we go 🙃

ahalekelly avatar
Adrian

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