Self-explanatory. Based on the probability displayed on Manifold (i.e., whatever whole percentage Manifold rounds it to)
Hm, this market is getting close to 69 traders. Imagine if it closes at 69% on 6/9 with 69 traders.
Will this market close at…
Market says close is 6/9 (67%) at 4:20 so same 1:5 odds of a die roll (17%), so EV is the product 1/9=11% 🤔 well priced! 😂
I’m going to let this go up naturally then buy a bunch down later lol
Interesting that this one is already down to 15%, even though Adrian's market was never that low, except for a brief spike downward. Maybe people are taking into account the NO resolution of his market as an additional piece of information. Or maybe it's because this one doesn't close until 6/9, and the longer time frame will allow its liquidity to increase, making it riskier for someone to spike it to 69% last minute.
@JosephNoonan Yeah bit both resolved no haha so here we go 🙃