Will this market close at 69%?
closes Jun 9

Self-explanatory. Based on the probability displayed on Manifold (i.e., whatever whole percentage Manifold rounds it to)

Sort by:
JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonanis predicting YES at 8%

Hm, this market is getting close to 69 traders. Imagine if it closes at 69% on 6/9 with 69 traders.

deagol avatar
Daniel Tellobought Ṁ0 of YES

Will this market close at…

Market says close is 6/9 (67%) at 4:20 so same 1:5 odds of a die roll (17%), so EV is the product 1/9=11% 🤔 well priced! 😂

RahulShah avatar
Rahul Shahis predicting NO at 13%

I’m going to let this go up naturally then buy a bunch down later lol

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan

Interesting that this one is already down to 15%, even though Adrian's market was never that low, except for a brief spike downward. Maybe people are taking into account the NO resolution of his market as an additional piece of information. Or maybe it's because this one doesn't close until 6/9, and the longer time frame will allow its liquidity to increase, making it riskier for someone to spike it to 69% last minute.

RahulShah avatar
Rahul Shahbought Ṁ361 of NO

@JosephNoonan Yeah bit both resolved no haha so here we go 🙃

ahalekelly avatar

Related markets

When this market closes, will it be between 0-10% or 90-100%?55%
Will the probability on this market be even at close?48%
Will this market close at a threeven number?38%
Will the Cipher Challenge market close within the range 30% to 70%?55%
Will the Cipher Challenge market close within ±3% of 50%?45%
By the end of 2023, will I believe that closing a market 1 minute before the end of that interval is the best end date?15%
Will elasticity be represented on the market graph by market close?26%
When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)72%
What percent of top all time manifold traders will be top all time manifold creators at market close?23%
will magic be real when this market closes64%
What rough % of my computer time will I spend interacting with an AI at market close day?36%
At close, will the %chance displayed exceed number of Traders * number of traders without a position.64%
Will I be in USA on a H1b visa at market close?84%
Will I judge that 2+2=4 after considering what's said by the commenters. Resolves at market close.92%
How many hours of RimWorld playtime will I have at market close time (end of June)?100