Will this market close at 69%?
Will this market close at 69%?
81
1.6kṀ20k
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
NO

Self-explanatory. Based on the probability displayed on Manifold (i.e., whatever whole percentage Manifold rounds it to)

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1y

Has any "Will this market close at X%?" market resolved YES?

1y

@JacyAnthis Good question.

predictedNO 1y

I forgot about this market. Thanks to @XComhghall for saving me

predictedNO 1y

@XComhghall DM me on discord for 500 mana

predictedNO 1y

@MarcusAbramovitch Thanks! You only got 388 though. Something like 100 would be fine. I'll use it for [Challenge] Will someone decode this cryptic image by 6/18? [M100 bounty]NO‌

1y

It closed at 20%.

predictedYES 1y

Hm, this market is getting close to 69 traders. Imagine if it closes at 69% on 6/9 with 69 traders.

1y

Will this market close at…

Market says close is 6/9 (67%) at 4:20 so same 1:5 odds of a die roll (17%), so EV is the product 1/9=11% 🤔 well priced! 😂

predictedNO 2y

I’m going to let this go up naturally then buy a bunch down later lol

2y

Interesting that this one is already down to 15%, even though Adrian's market was never that low, except for a brief spike downward. Maybe people are taking into account the NO resolution of his market as an additional piece of information. Or maybe it's because this one doesn't close until 6/9, and the longer time frame will allow its liquidity to increase, making it riskier for someone to spike it to 69% last minute.

2y

@JosephNoonan Yeah bit both resolved no haha so here we go 🙃

2y

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Will the average bidding price for this question be more than 120 mana?
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Resolves based on what the most liked comment at the time of resolution says on how to resolve.
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24% chance
Which answer will be the second most popular?
Is the universe fully deterministic?
44% chance
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What do you think about this idea for boosting interest in markets: POSITIONS
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