Will this market close at 69%?
81
Ṁ20k
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
NO

Self-explanatory. Based on the probability displayed on Manifold (i.e., whatever whole percentage Manifold rounds it to)

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Has any "Will this market close at X%?" market resolved YES?

@JacyAnthis Good question.

predicted NO

I forgot about this market. Thanks to @XComhghall for saving me

predicted NO

@XComhghall DM me on discord for 500 mana

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Thanks! You only got 388 though. Something like 100 would be fine. I'll use it for /XComhghall/will-someone-decode-this-cryptic-im

It closed at 20%.

predicted YES

Hm, this market is getting close to 69 traders. Imagine if it closes at 69% on 6/9 with 69 traders.

Will this market close at…

Market says close is 6/9 (67%) at 4:20 so same 1:5 odds of a die roll (17%), so EV is the product 1/9=11% 🤔 well priced! 😂

predicted NO

I’m going to let this go up naturally then buy a bunch down later lol

Interesting that this one is already down to 15%, even though Adrian's market was never that low, except for a brief spike downward. Maybe people are taking into account the NO resolution of his market as an additional piece of information. Or maybe it's because this one doesn't close until 6/9, and the longer time frame will allow its liquidity to increase, making it riskier for someone to spike it to 69% last minute.

@JosephNoonan Yeah bit both resolved no haha so here we go 🙃