The number I'm looking at is this one:
"From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 2.6 percent."
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2025
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@Plant the title's "in a report released" wording led me to read this as the max of published figures during the window; under that interpretation the june report's 4.1% qualifies even though the figure was subsequently revised. is that how you intended it?
@perfperfperf I think your interpretation is the clear implication of the title's wording. Lord knows what was going through my head when I made this market.
@perfperfperf No because it's been superseded https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026
(But I finally understand where all the over 4% bets were coming from.)
@MaxA i think the key wording is the title's "highest annual PCE inflation in a report released," and the june report explicitly listed may at 4.1%
the estimate was revised later, but the original qualifying report still released with a figure above 4%; i took the resolution criteria to mean taking the max(figures reported), using the latest revised historical series would be a different criterion (imo).
thus, 4% already met the condition for resolving yes
@perfperfperf This is a valid reading. Now the author will need to decide. Or maybe they fact there's been no resolution after three months is already the answer.