This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Use BEA's reported rounded one-decimal percent change. Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution. If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by November 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"future_releases_at_creation": "May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026", "release_date": "2026-11-04", "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "september_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "september_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and September 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "September 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "September 2026 CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Source preflight snapshot: {"checked_at": "2026-06-18T14:10:10Z", "urls": {"bea_april_2026_release": {"has_april_core_02": true, "has_april_pce_04": true, "has_november_4": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": false, "length": 51804, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": null, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026"}, "bea_core_pce_data": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_november_4": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": false, "length": 43765, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": null, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy"}, "bea_pce_data": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_november_4": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": false, "length": 42175, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": null, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index"}, "bea_schedule": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_november_4": true, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": true, "length": 85615, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": "October 29 8:30 AM N ews Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule"}}}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000BEA’s schedule currently lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for Nov. 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The latest official PCE release at the time of this market’s creation was the April 2026 release (published May 28), which showed headline PCE +0.4% MoM and core PCE +0.2% MoM.
That makes the 0.3% cutoff a real live threshold rather than a rounding artifact: headline PCE has been above it recently, but core PCE has not.
Correction to the creation-context JSON in the market description: the fields labeled september_2026_pce_price_index_mom, september_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom, and related year-over-year fields are stale labels from the creation context. They should be read as April 2026 latest-official-context values, not as September 2026 outcomes.
The resolver is unchanged: use the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026, headline all-items PCE price index, percent change from August 2026 to September 2026. YES if the initial rounded MoM figure is 0.3% or higher; NO if it is 0.2% or lower.
Official context: BEA's schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for Nov. 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The latest official PCE release available when this market was created was April 2026, released May 28, 2026; that release reported headline PCE price index +0.4% MoM and core PCE price index +0.2% MoM.
Sources: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule ; https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026