Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official results of the first round of the 2025 Polish presidential election, scheduled for May 18, 2025. The percentage of votes received by each candidate will be determined from the official data published by the National Electoral Commission of Poland. The "other candidates" category includes all presidential candidates except for the two leading candidates, who are currently:

• Rafał Trzaskowski, representing the Civic Coalition

• Karol Nawrocki, representing the Law and Justice party

The combined vote percentage of all other candidates will be calculated by summing their individual percentages as reported in the official election results.

Background

The 2025 Polish presidential election is set for May 18, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held on June 1, 2025. Key candidates include liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform, PiS-supported historian Karol Nawrocki, and far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen. Other contenders include centrist Szymon Hołownia, several leftist candidates led by Magdalena Biejat, and fringe figures like Grzegorz Braun and Krzysztof Stanowski. (reuters.com)

Recent opinion polls indicate that Trzaskowski leads with approximately 38.6% support, followed by Nawrocki at 23.3%. Sławomir Mentzen has around 10.7%, and Szymon Hołownia about 7.4%. Other candidates collectively account for the remaining percentage. (tvn24.pl)

Considerations

• Polling Variability: Polls are subject to change as the election approaches. Factors such as campaign developments, debates, and emerging news can influence voter preferences.

• Voter Turnout: High or low voter turnout can significantly impact the final percentages for each candidate.

• Undecided Voters: A portion of the electorate remains undecided, which could sway the results in unexpected ways.

• Potential Runoff: If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, the dynamics of the runoff could affect the strategies and outcomes for all candidates involved.