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@PetrKadlec What inspired you to ask this?

@HankyUSA This question feels like one of the most "on point" "old Manifold" questions from back when we had markets on everything.

Kinda wish I saw it sooner!

@HankyUSA It’s funny how the craziness goes so quickly forward so that the yesterday’s gets totally forgotten in just a month. :-) Cf. https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-many-nobel-prizes-will-donald-t (I also “hoped” a bit that with that Melania and whatnot, this might get a bit more interesting. It didn’t, other crazy stuff happened instead.)

How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term?

In his physical possession or ownership, regardless of how he got them. Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is about the physical Nobel Prize medal(s) in Trump's possession or ownership, not the prize designation itself. The medal can be transferred or change hands regardless of who originally won the Nobel Prize.

I'd love it if someone donated a Stella - the award for frivolous court cases.

https://stellaawards.com/