Looks like they are planning to host most of the Games in 2025... BUT, they are planning to host a single event (100m sprint) in late 2024. So it's possible that the Enhanced Games organization WILL break a world record (surely they chose 100m sprint because it is popular and they think they have a high chance of beating the world record), but not actually hold the main "Games" event until 2025. (Just one event in 2024 would be more like "Enhanced Game"!)

https://nypost.com/2023/08/02/performance-drug-enhanced-games-to-launch-in-2024-pay-athletes/

I don’t think they’ll host it without securing athletes capable of world records.

@DanMan314 I think that's probably a good assumption, maybe we need a market for that.

https://manifold.markets/JakeEatonc5e2/will-the-enhanced-games-happen-befo?r=SmFrZUVhdG9uYzVlMg

Will the Enhanced Games happen before 2028?

50% chance. Resolves yes if the entity at https://enhanced.org (or successors) hold any competitive athletics event before 2028.

Hard to quantify how much stronger, faster, etc. doping can make athletes, and it depends on the sport (see e.g. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/scientists-explain-how-an-all-drug-olympics-could-create-the-greatest-athletes-ever-12667877/). I'd put it at 1-5%.

My thinking here is that even if these games happen, it's going to be very difficult to attract top tier talent who otherwise would have chances to compete in events governed by any doping agency. It seems like you would need to attract people outside the top 5-10% of performance (otherwise it makes sense for them to compete in governed sports).

Even still, it's not as if the top echelon of athletes + doping equal WR. Russia has had state-sponsored doping for who knows how long. They win medals, but they set WRs much more rarely.

Athletic performance has such long tails, I'm just not confident that this random event is going to attract someone far enough out in ability for doping to even matter.

But I think most likely is that they don't happen.