If the Enhanced Games happen before 2025, will any world record be beaten?
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2025
47%
chance

Enhanced Games refers to the event promoted by https://enhanced.org/ or any equivalent successor event where athletes compete without drug testing.

World records refer specifically to the list maintained in https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_world_records_in_athletics and not to other records.


It's ok for a world record to be beaten unofficially and it's ok for the Wikipedia article to not be updated. What is required is for the world record to be broken at the Enhanced Games per credible media reporting. It's ok if the "Criteria" in the Wikipedia list are not met.

If the Enhanced Games do not take place before 2025, this question will resolve N/A.

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Looks like they are planning to host most of the Games in 2025... BUT, they are planning to host a single event (100m sprint) in late 2024. So it's possible that the Enhanced Games organization WILL break a world record (surely they chose 100m sprint because it is popular and they think they have a high chance of beating the world record), but not actually hold the main "Games" event until 2025. (Just one event in 2024 would be more like "Enhanced Game"!)

https://nypost.com/2023/08/02/performance-drug-enhanced-games-to-launch-in-2024-pay-athletes/

bought Ṁ30 of YES

I don’t think they’ll host it without securing athletes capable of world records.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Hard to quantify how much stronger, faster, etc. doping can make athletes, and it depends on the sport (see e.g. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/scientists-explain-how-an-all-drug-olympics-could-create-the-greatest-athletes-ever-12667877/). I'd put it at 1-5%.

My thinking here is that even if these games happen, it's going to be very difficult to attract top tier talent who otherwise would have chances to compete in events governed by any doping agency. It seems like you would need to attract people outside the top 5-10% of performance (otherwise it makes sense for them to compete in governed sports).

Even still, it's not as if the top echelon of athletes + doping equal WR. Russia has had state-sponsored doping for who knows how long. They win medals, but they set WRs much more rarely.

Athletic performance has such long tails, I'm just not confident that this random event is going to attract someone far enough out in ability for doping to even matter.

But I think most likely is that they don't happen.