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i bet "movie does not give answer" on the assumption the movie could ascertain little more than the rest of the world could online already about who satoshi is/was. It turns out I was correct, they couldn't! But it didn't stop them from making a claim anyway and me losing mana on this market lmao

I have not yet watched the film or seen any authoritative account stating who it named. I won't close this until I see one or the other.

I'm guessing from the price action here and on polymarket that the film named a Hal Finney/Len Sassaman joint effort. If that's correct, then this market would resolve at 50% for both of those names. Polymarket might resolve differently.

@PeterMillerc030 Claude thinks it should resolve to 50/50 Len Sassaman/Hal Finney when given the full subtitles of the movie: https://claude.ai/share/ef2cb4e1-3e04-498f-8a57-002d970da5fd (I've paid to see it and extracted the subs that way)

@PeterMillerc030 full summary of the movie per-Claude for those who aren't planning to watch it: https://claude.ai/share/a3cfc712-a0f4-4cb9-976d-b0cc6c686b9d

@nsokolsky Thanks for the summary! That theory sounds wrong in so many ways.

I posted a few quick comments on why it's wrong:
https://x.com/tgof137/status/2047019444774527044

Satoshi also left a few comments:
https://x.com/adam3us/status/2046966469825532389

Polymarket's now got a market up on this.
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-the-finding-satoshi-documentary-identify-as-satoshi

Note that the rules say:
"If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". "

If the info @Dssc offered below is good that it's an equal Hal+Len effort, then maybe there's money to be made betting on that?

@PeterMillerc030 Well, it also says "This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin" and "If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin."

I think the implication is that, in the case that the documentary does explicitly list a duo working together, polymarket will resolve to whoever is vaguely the "primary creator" of the duo, wheras this one will resolve to 50/50. Honestly "primary creator" seems incredibly subjective for a real money polymarket, as I'm not sure how they would resolve it if there isn't a clear "primary creator" of the duo such as if both people are stated to have different similarly importnat roles, but that's also not my problem.

BTW, on the polymarket, it took a while but Adam Back has fallen to 3% on the polymarket while Hal Finney is up to 69%, with Len Sassaman far behind in 2nd at 10%. Of course, as stated above, there is a pretty major difference in resolution criteria compared to for this market in the case of multiple people being named as Satoshi, but at least somebody trading with real money seems to think it's likely that Hal Finney will be either named solo or be the "primary creator" of any group/duo of people named.

@Dssc Yeah, I saw that Hal's odds shot up, on the other market. Not sure if that's a leak or just everyone copying each other's bets on the assumption it's a leak.

@PeterMillerc030 Honestly I think it’s just people finding the same Bram Kanstein tweets that I found? It was a pretty low liquidity market I don’t think it’s terribly unlikely nobody both saw the market + saw the tweets + were willing to bet on it on a low volume polymarket, and I don’t know why Adam Back would be trading so high if people saw the tweets considering how explicitly Bram Kanstein states that it’s not Adam Back.

@Dssc So is it actually worth watching? Pretty hesitant to spend $15 on this thing if it's not serious research.

I'm definitely past kelly by now, so some information I've been quiet about:

Bram Kanstein, a bitcoin youtuber, claims to have seen a preview of the documentary.

How reliable is this? Well, I don't really know why he would lie about this, especially when he is actively praising and promoting the documentary. It also would make sense, as in an interview, Tucker Tooley, the producer of the documentary, has said that they have shown it to various influencers.

Assuming that he has seen the preview, he has given some pretty big hints about who the documentary will name:

"It's not Adam Back and definitely not Craig Wright" is pretty explicit. He even calls it a spoiler himself!

This isn't explicitly referring to the documentary, BUT:

1. It's wedged right between two posts explicitly promoting the documentary

2. Bram clearly views the documentary positively and claims that it has a "really compelling case," implying that he agrees with the conclusion of the documentary. It seems extremely likely that any opinion he has about whether Satoshi is a single person or a duo would come directly from the documentary

3. As far as I can tell, he rarely posts about Satoshi, and has only done so recently in reference to the documentary.

He also replied to this under the Satoshi = Duo post. This isn't super strong evidence, but it does stand out, as he didn't reply to any of the other theories under this post, such as ones suggesting Roger Wilco or John Nash.

He also replied to this, with a very suspicious "What if they can't." I think this strongly implies that the documentary will name a dead duo as Satoshi, as it is the main reason why somebody would be unable to sign with the "Satoshi private keys."

Then there's this "almost" from Bram from a post suggesting that Hal Finney is Satoshi. Combined with the earlier duo post, I interpret this as suggesting that it is a duo involving Hal Finney. It wouldn't make sense to reply "almost" to an answer that is just the wrong person, but it makes perfect sense if it's half-right if the documentary states that Satoshi is half-Finney.

There are also some comments to people saying that they don't want Satoshi to be found with "I think you will like the conclusion." This seems like it implies that the documentary will actually go with no answer, except...

He above seems to be confident that the he now knows who Satoshi is, and explicitly states that the documentary answers the mystery here. Instead, I think these "you will likely the conclusion" posts are rather addressing the worry that a revealed Satoshi will tank the price of Bitcoin due to Satoshi's stash. This probably means that the documentary's suspects will be already dead, rather than just no answer.

Finally, there are two posts implying that, while Satoshi was very much "in the PGP corner," Adam Back is "still WRONG." This is interesting, as Hal Finney and Len Sassaman are the two candidates most closely related to PGP, as they both worked together developing PGP.

In aggregate with the previous evidence, I think this clearly points towards a Hal Finney + Len Sassaman duo. They both fit the earlier "6 pillars" teaser from the official account. The main counterpoint against Len Sassaman was the documentary's focus on the US timezone, while Len was in Belgium at the time. However, a duo with somebody in a US timezone doing the Satoshi posts would be an easy explanation for the documentary. The main counterpoint against Hal Finney was the documentary having the image of Hal Finney running a marathon while Satoshi was posting. However, a duo with somebody else posting that one time would be an easy explanation for the documentary as well. Furthermore, both Hal Finney and Len Sassaman stand out as the only candidates with a costly shot in an entirely different location. While both the Sonoran Desert shot and the Brussels shot could just be investigating a candidate they didn't end up choosing, having to go to a new location is costly, so it seems likely that they would only reserve this for their actual final candidates.

@Dssc I did a longer write-up of why Len Sassaman alone was not Satoshi:
https://medium.com/p/935f95695bd9

That's possibly irrelevant to this market, as it's quite possible that a Coinbase sponsored documentary is going to present a fan favorite theory like Len or Hal, or Len+Hal, as you suggest.

I think the divergence between this and Ben Shindel's market (which is currently favoring Todd, Back, Szabo, other) is interesting, and Ben's market odds are probably much closer to the reality of who Satoshi is.

While it's easy to disprove Hal Finney alone as Satoshi and Len Sassaman alone as Satoshi, I guess it gets more complicated when you have to prove that they're not working together. Maybe I'll take a shot at that, if the movie comes out with that conclusion, but I'm not gonna make the effort until I see people jumping on that idea.

Damn I’m good. Although I think Bram might’ve been teasing a little too hard lol.

@DerekWangZO6N I don't think this answer is valid because it's a dependent market/sum-to-one, and it's superset of the other answers (except for "Movie does not give an answer"). "Movie does not give an answer" only works because it's disjoint from any person being named.

@Dssc Yeah, I thought it was just a troll post. I'm fine with trolling, keep them coming if you want, but they will all resolve to zero.

@PeterMillerc030 I doubt it was intentional, I think it's easy to confuse dependent market mechanics vs. non-dependent market mechanics.

@nsokolsky Interesting theory. I think he was the 3rd Bitcoin miner:
https://blog.dustintrammell.com/block-286-and-satoshis-coins/

Could that be Satoshi joining his own network to get more activity because no one else but Satoshi and Hal had joined?

Dustin Trammell does double space after a period, and he does it perfectly, just like Satoshi. Here's people on the cryptography list who double space, and how consistent they are:
(format is "number of lines posted / number of times they did a single space instead of double")

Adam Back: 9343 / 10
Ray Dillinger: 10430 / 60
James A. Donald: 15521 / 56
Hal Finney: 6502 / 125
John Gilmore: 8426 / 84
Ian Grigg: 25304 / 96
Travis Hassloch: 25342 / 159
Robert A. Hettinga: 142696 / 4531
Dan Kaminsky: 1288 / 2
John Kelsey: 5927 / 2
Ben Laurie: 12223 / 219
Satoshi Nakamoto: 686 / 0
Dustin D. Trammell: 315 / 0
David A. Wagner: 2982 / 0
Zooko: 6150 / 26

@PeterMillerc030 added David A. Wagner

@PeterMillerc030 Dustin Tramell comes from feeding the output file of this GitHub to Opus and asking it to find candidates not yet mentioned: https://github.com/basvandorst/where-is-satoshi

I’m curious if the poll options will cover every person the documentary will mention as a potential candidate.

Claude/Opus research updated on all the comments in this thread, now it believes the probabilities are as follows -- with the confidence interval included in brackets

Len Sassaman: 48% (35-62%)

Hal Finney: 18% (8-28%)

Other / unlisted: 8% (3-14%)

Sassaman+Finney collab: 6% (2-12%)

Dan Kaminsky: 5% (2-10%)

Nick Szabo: 3% (1-7%)

James A. Donald: 3% (1-7%)

Adam Back: 2% (0.5-5%)

Movie does not give an answer: 2% (0.5-4%)

Wei Dai: 2% (0.5-4%)

Meredith Patterson: 1% (0.2-3%)

Dave Kleiman: 1% (0.2-2%)

Full analysis here: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/d2ffd808-b929-4646-9da3-f9b36ac35ce4

Disclaimer: I am not endorsing Claude's answer, just experimenting to see how good Opus Research is at predictions.

@nsokolsky FWIW, I added Meredith because she's a C++ programmer and Len Sassaman was not. If it's him, it could have been a collaboration. If he's Satoshi, he either lied like crazy to his wife such that she doesn't know, or she lied like crazy about him not being Satoshi. If the film really does go the route of naming Len, it seems possible they'd name both.

@PeterMillerc030 watch party on the 22nd? Just you, me, and the other 111 people who bet on the market.

Think how much mana you can earn for the low price of $14.99

Added another answer. Please don't sue me CSW! 🥀🙏🏻😂