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Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ20
Jul 1
41%
chance
  • Resolves YES if OpenAI makes a public announcement and users can access the new model in ChatGPT or via the OpenAI API before the deadline.

  • Resolves NO if no such model is publicly released by the deadline.

  • Does NOT count: minor updates, model snapshots, fine-tunes, “mini”/“lite” variants, or feature-only changes without a new flagship generation label.

  • Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): GPT-5.3 would NOT count as it would be considered an improvement of a current version rather than a new flagship generation. The market requires a new flagship generation (like GPT-6), not incremental version updates (like 5.3) or thinking improvements.

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Does GPT-5.3 count? Not quite clear from the description.

@xjp flagship meaning not just an improvement of a current version like 5.3 or something (also including another thinking improvement) but rather a flagship like GPT 6

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