Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if OpenAI officially releases or makes publicly accessible a foundation model explicitly branded under the "GPT-7" generation (e.g., "GPT-7", "GPT-7 Turbo", "GPT-7 Astra", or minor initial iterations such as "GPT-7-mini") before January 1, 2028, at 00:00 UTC.

To qualify:

• The model must be accessible to at least a subset of public or enterprise users via the OpenAI API, ChatGPT, or open model weights.

• A mere announcement, pre-announcement, or research paper without public/developer deployment will not qualify.

• Intermediate iterations of previous generations (such as GPT-6.1, GPT-6.5) do not qualify.

• Resolution will verify against official announcements on the OpenAI News page or the OpenAI Model Release Notes.

If OpenAI has not released a model meeting these criteria by the cutoff date, or if OpenAI ceases operations without releasing GPT-7, the market resolves to NO.

Background

OpenAI released GPT-4 in March 2023, followed by GPT-5 in August 2025 and the GPT-6 model family (including GPT-6 Astra and Sol) in autumn 2026. While major frontier release cadences have historically ranged between 12 and 30 months, scaling bottlenecks, safety evaluations under frontier preparedness frameworks, and architectural shifts to point releases could impact the timing of a full GPT-7 generation release.

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