Will my (real life) net worth reach 60k by Nov 2024?
Basic
8
Ṁ158
Nov 9
25%
chance

All is denominated in Bulgarian lev.

My current net worth:

  • 8k in my bank account

  • 7.2k in safe notes in a startup called Dronamics. You can roughly track it's performance here: https://www.bse-sofia.bg/en/issuer-profile/DRON/

    • I do not expect a liquidity event soon.

  • ~700 in other stuff, including several .ai domains

For a grand total of ~16k.

My current net salary is 5.2k per month

My current expenses are about 3.5-4k per month.

That would bring my total expected net worth to around 34k.

Will I, a year from now, have a net worth of at least 60k BGN?

I can see this being controversial, so besides an initial limit order at 25%, I will not participate in this market.

Also, since there is some personal information here, if there is no interest in this market in one week, I will cancel and unlist it. :)

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Ṁ1,000
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These numbers make me think I should have done a cash prize for my Sudoku market.

@Gen Do you think some kind of mana redemption offer for participants could be arranged with the Manifold Community fund? This man has spent 1% of his net worth on my challenge on API costs, if I'm reading this right, and being able to redeem up to $500 in winnings for anyone that actively participated(not just bet) would go a long way.

predicts NO

@Mira interesting idea - definitely something for @Austin !

I do know multiple people have spent $50-100 on API calls during tests. How much have you spent validating attempts so far?

predicts NO

@Gen $200. Luckily GPT-4 Turbo should cut that down once everyone switches to it.

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