Due to some... unfortunate mishaps that had to do with overhedging supposedly guaranteed markets for loanmaxxing purposes, my profits took a nose dive last year:
Will I be able to overcome my dark twisted past and reach positive portfolio profit by EOY 2024?
I may bet on this market, but will always strive to gain mana with every significant investment I make on this platform.
This market resolves YES instantly if I reach >0 overall profit for a minimum of 24 hours according to my public profile (the mana devaluation-adjusted leaderboard profits do not affect this market). Otherwise resolves NO on 01.01.2025.
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You can fix it by betting YES on this, guaranteed 9000% returns!
https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-violent-jay-and-shaggy-2-dope?r=UGxhc21hQmFsbGlu
I did the worst-case-calculation and I'm close to another 60k profit down if Biden drops out and Trump wins. I do believe, though! (plus if I succumb to doubts I can easily exit the Biden market with easy +10-20k profit once people realize he isn't dropping out and the market settles to a more reasonable number. The current 21% is my breakeven point)
Dude I so wish that I didn't go all in on the Biden market at 55% and waited till it dropped to 20s-30s... I thought for sure that betting it down below like, 45 at lowest would be ridiculous. I could be so up right now...
When Biden nomination market was at 25%, I spent all my mana, canceled all the limit orders, and sold a bunch of shit to buy more Biden YES lol
Biden presidency at 15% is a steal yeah. What do you think the odds are that he wins conditional on getting nominated? At the moment I'd give him like ~85% chance of being nominated and ~40% of winning if nominated, so 15% in the presidency market would correspond to around a 37% in the nomination market.
Unfortunately I have no mana left