Although personally I don't believe it's likely, I am making this market and betting YES to motivate myself.

I will never buy NO, I will never sell my YES shares, and I'm opening a limit order for YES at 50%, that I'll refill as I have liquidity, up to 10k mana.

The resolution criteria is very straightforward - if I score in the top 5 in the leaderboard in any of these competitions, the market resolves as YES.

If I win any money in a Kaggle competition, the market resolves as YES (this is usually top 3-5 spots). My kaggle username is istinetz, same as here.

If I don't do any of these things, or if I consider it astronomically unlikely, I will resolve the market as NO early.

Context about myself:

Pros:

• I like machine learning

• I am a data engineer

• I really want this

Cons:

• I don't have an ML PhD. I don't have any degree

• I have never written a paper

• I have never placed well in a Kaggle competition

• I have a full-time job that doesn't have anything to do with reinforcement learning

• I have a tendency to procrastinate on side projects

• I don't have a brilliant plan to game the rules, or a trick up my sleeve

• I previously made a similar market that resolved NO