Will I score a top position in any NeurIPS or Kaggle competition in the next 7 months?
23
622Ṁ57k
resolved Apr 3
Resolved
NO

Although personally I don't believe it's likely, I am making this market and betting YES to motivate myself.

I will never buy NO, I will never sell my YES shares, and I'm opening a limit order for YES at 50%, that I'll refill as I have liquidity, up to 10k mana.

The resolution criteria is very straightforward - if I score in the top 5 in the leaderboard in any of these competitions, the market resolves as YES.

If I win any money in a Kaggle competition, the market resolves as YES (this is usually top 3-5 spots). My kaggle username is istinetz, same as here.

If I don't do any of these things, or if I consider it astronomically unlikely, I will resolve the market as NO early.

Context about myself:

Pros:

  • I like machine learning

  • I am a data engineer

  • I really want this

Cons:

  • I don't have an ML PhD. I don't have any degree

  • I have never written a paper

  • I have never placed well in a Kaggle competition

  • I have a full-time job that doesn't have anything to do with reinforcement learning

  • I have a tendency to procrastinate on side projects

  • I don't have a brilliant plan to game the rules, or a trick up my sleeve

  • I previously made a similar market that resolved NO

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