Although personally I don't believe it's likely, I am making this market and betting YES to motivate myself.
I will never buy NO, I will never sell my YES shares, and every week I will buy 100-200M worth of YES.
The resolution criteria is very straightforward - if I score in the top 5 in the leaderboard in any of these competitions, the market resolves as YES. If I don't, or if I consider it astronomically unlikely, I will resolve the market as NO early.
I will probably focus on either the Lux or the Sensorium competitions.
Context about myself:
Pros:
I like machine learning
I am a data engineer
I really want this
Cons:
I don't have an ML PhD. I don't have any degree
I have never written a paper
I have never placed well in a Kaggle competition
I have a full-time job that doesn't have anything to do with reinforcement learning
I have a tendency to give up halfway with side projects
I don't have a brillian plan to game the rules, or a trick up my sleeve
1,000
3.00@fredrickslick the leaderboards are public, I'll either run under my name or as istinetz.
@agucova yeah, I mentioned in the description, probably Lux or Sensorium.
Lux ran for 2 seasons on Kaggle, I never made a serious, working submission. This would be a variation on the second season, except on a bigger board, with different rules. This is a multi-agent reinforcement learning challenge.
Sensorium is a competition to predict the visual cortex activity of mice given the visual input. I don't have any idea how I would approach it, it just seems cool.