Although personally I don't believe it's likely, I am making this market and betting YES to motivate myself.

I will never buy NO, I will never sell my YES shares, and every week I will buy 100-200M worth of YES.

The resolution criteria is very straightforward - if I score in the top 5 in the leaderboard in any of these competitions, the market resolves as YES. If I don't, or if I consider it astronomically unlikely, I will resolve the market as NO early.

I will probably focus on either the Lux or the Sensorium competitions.

Context about myself:

Pros:

• I like machine learning

• I am a data engineer

• I really want this

Cons:

• I don't have an ML PhD. I don't have any degree

• I have never written a paper

• I have never placed well in a Kaggle competition

• I have a full-time job that doesn't have anything to do with reinforcement learning

• I have a tendency to give up halfway with side projects

• I don't have a brillian plan to game the rules, or a trick up my sleeve